Peru’s Growth Rises as Mining and Fishing Fall

Peru's economy grew 3.23% in August from a year earlier, but the gains weren't evenly spread. Construction and commerce drove the expansion, while mining, oil and fishing contracted, the national statistics institute INEI said Thursday, October 15.

The headline number slowed from July's 3.56%. Output rose 3.14% from January to August and 3.31% over the 12 months to August. Seasonally adjusted output edged up 0.22% from July. A year earlier, growth stood at 2.80% on INEI's current revised series.

Where the Growth Came From

Construction grew 10.34%, including a 7.63% increase in cement consumption and a 19.33% rise in public works. That figure stands out. Government infrastructure spending did real work in August.

Commerce rose 6.89%, powered by car sales, which climbed 25.73% as financing and vehicle fairs supported buyers. Consumer loans at commercial banks reached S/ 89.5 billion, about US$26.0 billion, up 15.9%. New light-vehicle sales jumped 44.7% to 23,412 units, and consumer-goods imports climbed 23.1% to US$1.46 billion. Financial and insurance activity grew 3.19%, with deposits up 7.91% and credits up 3.98%. Business services grew 3.91%, government services 3.06%, and electricity, gas and water 6.61%.

Much of that consumer-side momentum rests on borrowing. Households took on more credit to buy cars and goods. That leaves families more exposed if the economy cools.

The Extractive Sectors Falter

Metal mining fell 6.14% and hydrocarbons 1.35%, leaving the combined sector down 5.53%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it contracted 3.62% from July. Copper output dropped 5.3% to about 207,100 tonnes as ore grades declined at Antapaccay in southern Peru. Chinalco, the miner behind Toromocho, carried out minor planned maintenance, while Cerro Verde and Marcobre also produced less.

Zinc production fell 28.1%, its seventh consecutive monthly decline, as Antamina processed more copper-only ore. INEI said the shift followed the mine's plan. Silver output fell 10.4% and gold 0.9%. Molybdenum rose 12.5% and iron 9.2%, together adding 1.10 percentage points to mining's result.

The timing is striking. Average copper prices rose 48.9% from a year earlier to record highs, yet Peruvian copper volumes fell 5.3%. Southern Peru Copper, the Peruvian arm of New York-listed Southern Copper (SCCO), was among the miners INEI named as having lower output. Total exports still grew 17.75%, with traditional products up 20.89% and non-traditional products up 10.32%. Central bank trade data put August exports at US$10.8 billion and imports at US$6.1 billion.

Fishing and Oil Take a Hit

Crude oil output fell 10.85%, its 10th consecutive decline, as operator PetroTal worked on up to five wells at Lot 95. Fishing fell 17.33%, and anchovy landings for fishmeal dropped 58.1% to 2,602 tonnes. The state El Niño commission ENFEN noted that giant squid fishing had been suspended since July 18, INEI said—a stretch of 90 days as of October 16. Fresh fish landings rose 11.54%, softening the decline. INEI's figures are preliminary, based on information available Wednesday, October 14, and the institute didn't provide an El Niño estimate for the fishing drop.

Manufacturing grew 4.18%, helped by primary precious-metal products, which rose 89.91% from a low base. INEI identified the United States as a market for jewellery, whose output rose 49.3%, and containers and trailers, up 194.43%. Apparel output fell 12.32%; the United States and Germany were named as markets.

Official Forecasts

The central bank, BCRP, cut its 2026 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.4% in September, citing El Niño. A central bank survey showed analysts expected 3.2% growth this year. The International Monetary Fund's October outlook projected 3%, up from 2.8% in April. INEI, led by Gaspar Morán Flores, compiles the monthly output index that Peruvian officials and media report as monthly GDP growth.

INEI's release calendar scheduled the September figure for Sunday, November 15, 30 days away as of October 16. Whether mining recovers from August's decline remains uncertain. Antamina's ore mix followed its mine plan. Zinc output has now fallen for seven months.

Why This Matters: A 3.23% headline can hide who's carrying the load. Growth leaned on public works, up 19.33%, and household borrowing, with consumer loans up 15.9% and car financing fueling a 25.73% jump in vehicle sales. Meanwhile, sectors tied to rural and coastal livelihoods—fishing and oil—shrank sharply, and anchovy landings fell 58.1%. Record copper prices didn't translate into more Peruvian copper. For policymakers, the figures raise a practical question about public investment, household debt and climate shocks like El Niño: who absorbs the risk when extractive output slips and credit-fueled spending cools? The BCRP's trimmed forecast suggests officials see the pressure building.