US Warships Move as Iran Standoff Deepens

The United States is sending roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines to the Middle East as talks over Iran’s nuclear program reach an impasse. Washington says it hasn’t ordered an attack and none is imminent, even as it adds military capacity. The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group are deploying while President Donald Trump weighs whether to resume strikes against Iran. He has said he won’t launch them before the November 3 US midterm elections.

The Roosevelt left San Diego on September 27. It is expected to relieve the Japan-based USS George Washington, which already operates in the region. The deployments give Washington more flexibility for air operations, protecting shipping and responding to regional threats. That’s the official description of a force posture built around warships, aircraft and the ability to act across the region.

Military threats, diplomatic conditions

Iran has refused to transfer enriched uranium abroad and says negotiations can’t resume without US concessions. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei told visiting Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir on Tuesday: “Not even a tiny bit of enriched nuclear material will leave Iran.” Rezaei called the uranium a national asset and said the United States must rebuild trust.

President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected talks under military threats and demanded sanctions relief. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Washington must meet Iran’s seven conditions, including ending the US blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and halting regional hostilities. Iran has indicated it might consider diluting uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity inside the country, but it won’t send the material abroad. Washington says any agreement must prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons; Iran denies seeking an atomic bomb.

Iranian military expert Mohammad Sadegh Alizadeh said lessons from the 12-day war in June 2025 and the 40-day war that began on 28 February prompted changes to the tactics of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) aerospace and naval forces and the army’s air defences. Iran has upgraded parts of its missile arsenal, including converting some missiles capable of reaching Israel into modular systems that crews can activate faster and with fewer logistical requirements. Coastal anti-ship missiles have also received technical improvements, and recent exercises tested their capabilities.

Alizadeh cited reports of possible arms purchases from allied countries, including hypersonic anti-ship missiles. He said they would have more complex flight paths and be harder to intercept, though their range is shorter than that of Iran’s ballistic missiles. Those claims, like the threat calculations driving military deployments, put civilian shipping and infrastructure within the stakes of a confrontation.

Targets, cables and civilian infrastructure

Former IRGC commander Hossein Kanani Moghaddam said Iran’s response to another attack would go beyond reciprocal strikes. It could target US bases, Israeli positions across the region and sites farther away. He cited possible strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv and the Dimona nuclear facility, and referred to previously undeployed weapons, including what he described as powerful electromagnetic bombs and a missile called Rastakhiz, or Resurrection. Those claims haven’t been independently verified.

Iranian military chief Ali Abdollahi said Tehran had developed missiles that could not be detected or intercepted and warned of a harsher response to any new attack. Senior security official Mohsen Rezaei said Iran had prepared a plan more destructive than those used in the previous two wars, without giving details. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi suggested Iran could target seven major undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that even a limited US military operation could cause a serious global energy crisis.

The dispute has raised concern about Gulf shipping, oil infrastructure and undersea communications. Gulf stock markets retreated on Wednesday as hopes for progress faded, Reuters reported, while oil prices remained sensitive to threats to shipping through the strait. Governments and militaries issue the plans and warnings. The risks travel well beyond their command rooms.

Mediation and election promises

Pakistan helped broker an April ceasefire and a June memorandum of understanding intended to provide a framework for a permanent settlement, but that process broke down. Qatar and Oman have also maintained diplomatic channels, and diplomatic efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan have intensified. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington welcomed mediation, but Trump would decide which terms were acceptable.

Iranian hardliners questioned whether Pakistan, Russia and other intermediaries could secure concessions. Commentator Ali Gholhaki said Lavrov and Munir had returned empty-handed after Tehran rejected proposals to transfer enriched uranium; other Iranian media questioned whether mediation announcements eased pressure on Washington by raising hopes of a settlement. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei defended keeping diplomatic channels open.

Reports said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought a new bombing campaign against Iran earlier in October, but Trump opposed it. Israel had prepared a multi-day campaign for the weekend of 10 October targeting Iranian power plants, nuclear facilities and sites associated with the government, according to a Financial Times report. Trump opposed reigniting the conflict before the November 3 US midterm elections, and officials shelved the proposed operation. During a visit to Israel on Monday, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was shown an updated list of Iranian targets based on new intelligence, including civilian infrastructure not struck earlier in the year, according to a source cited by the Financial Times.

Israel’s election next week may change its leader, but analysts and regional policymakers say it’s unlikely to change the country’s Iran-focused security doctrine. Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib said there was no prospect of a fundamental change in policy toward Palestinians: “The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement.” Netanyahu said Israel must prioritize “prevention and offense over containment and defense,” including pre-emptive strikes. The ballot may alter who directs the apparatus. The stated security doctrine, and the people caught within its reach, remain in view.