Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi inaugurated Egypt’s new State Strategic Command Headquarters, known as the “Octagon,” on Saturday in the New Administrative Capital east of Cairo, and the ceremony ended with the Armed Forces flag raised over a military and administrative city built to project state power in concrete, steel and secure communications systems.
The State’s New Fortress
The Octagon is not just a headquarters building. Egyptian state information described it as covering about 22,000 acres and comprising 13 strategic and logistical zones, with eight interconnected octagonal outer buildings arranged around two central command structures. The design is meant to symbolize the integration of Egypt’s armed forces and state institutions. That’s the point, really: a fortified command center where military planning, crisis management and state coordination all sit under one roof, or rather under a very expensive roofline.
By comparison, the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, covers about 29 acres as a building, while the wider Pentagon reservation is far smaller than the Egyptian complex. The Pentagon has about 6.5 million square feet of floor space. The Octagon has been reported to have about 50.5 million square feet, or roughly 4.6 million square meters, of floor area. Egypt presents it as a hub for military command, secure communications, crisis management, data exchange and coordination among state institutions. The language is bureaucratic. The scale is not.
The opening capped years of major military buildup and drew renewed attention in Israel, where Egypt’s expanding military capabilities have long generated concern among some analysts. Egypt and Israel share a border, and together they form Gaza’s two land borders, giving both countries a direct stake in the war’s fallout. Since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, relations between Jerusalem and Cairo have become more strained. The border may be quiet, but the machinery behind it is not.
Security Coordination, Cold Peace
Israel’s border with Egypt is about 152 miles long and is one of Israel’s quietest. Yet relations have never truly warmed. “It is not really cold peace as Israelis like to define it, but more like a cold war between the countries with no shots being fired,” Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel, a researcher of Israeli intelligence and infrastructure systems in Arab countries, told The Media Line. “What we are seeing is a marked deterioration in comments made in Egyptian media and by officials. Since the war, the amount of loathing and hate has skyrocketed.”
“Public diplomacy has grown increasingly confrontational, with Cairo adopting sharper rhetoric, pursuing legal and diplomatic pressure against Israel, and expressing concern over the trajectory of the war in Gaza,” Mariam Wahba, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Media Line. “At the same time, many of the mechanisms that matter most, particularly security coordination, have continued because neither side can afford a complete breakdown. The result is a relationship that is politically colder but strategically resilient.”
That’s the state logic in plain clothes. The rhetoric hardens, the coordination survives. Neither side has formally downgraded relations, though Egypt has not appointed a replacement for its former ambassador to Israel and has delayed approval of Israel’s new envoy to Cairo. “This is really impressive,” Michael Harari, a former Israeli ambassador and policy fellow at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, told The Media Line. “However, Egypt increasingly views Israel as unpredictable, and Israeli suggestions that Egypt’s military buildup constitutes a threat only add to the tensions.”
Egypt has repeatedly warned against any scenario that would result in the mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula. Those concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump floated proposals suggesting that Gaza’s population should be relocated elsewhere in the region as part of a broader postwar plan and the rehabilitation of the Palestinian territory after years of war. Israel’s right-wing government was enthusiastic about the plan President Trump put forward in early 2025. Egyptian officials slammed the idea, viewing it as crossing a strategic red line and arguing that absorbing large numbers of Palestinians would fundamentally alter Egypt’s national security, threaten Sinai’s stability and permanently undermine the Palestinian cause. Harari said, “It is seen by Egypt as an attempt to push the Palestinian problem into Egypt.”
Borders, Treaties, and the Usual Monopoly
Israeli analysts have pointed to a gradual increase in Egyptian forces along the border, saying some deployments exceed limits set by the peace agreement. Under the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, the Sinai Peninsula is divided into zones with strict limits on Egyptian forces. The recent deployment of regular army and mechanized units into areas closest to the Israeli border has raised strategic concern within Israeli security circles. That concern has grown alongside Egypt’s broader military buildup during the years of el-Sisi’s rule.
Dekel pointed to massive investments in underground infrastructure and missile stockpiles. “From the day the peace agreement was signed, it was temporary in the eyes of the Egyptians,” Dekel said. “There are currently four times more forces than agreed to along the border.” While the sides remain mutually suspicious, the tensions are unlikely to turn into war. “Israel has enough threats; it does not need to deal with the huge Egyptian military in addition,” Dekel said.
Egypt is not the only country expanding its military posture. Israel has also increased defense spending and carried out operations across the region during the war. “Both sides have an interest in upholding the agreement,” Harari said. “However, there is increasing concern in Egypt about the lack of willingness in the Israeli government to engage in political dialogue with the Palestinians, while encouraging relocation from Gaza.”
The current Israeli government, widely described as the most right-wing in the country’s history, includes senior ministers who have ruled out Palestinian statehood and encouraged Palestinian relocation from Gaza, putting Israel at odds with much of the Arab world, including Egypt. Sinai is home to several terrorist organizations that continue to challenge the government of el-Sisi. The issue of military presence along the border became even more sensitive after Israeli forces took control of a narrow strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border known as the Philadelphi Corridor.
That move raised disputes over security arrangements established under previous agreements. Egypt has insisted that any changes to border arrangements must respect existing understandings, while Israel has argued that tighter control is necessary to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. Despite growing tensions, security cooperation between Israel and Egypt has never completely stopped. For years, the two countries have coordinated closely against jihadist groups operating in Sinai. Israel has supported Egypt’s counterterrorism campaign through intelligence sharing and by approving temporary increases in Egyptian troop deployments in Sinai beyond the limits originally established in the peace treaty.
That cooperation reflects the reality that the peace agreement serves vital interests for both sides. For Israel, peace removed the threat of a conventional war with a major Arab military. For Egypt, the treaty ensured decades of border stability and vital US military assistance. “It leaves Egypt free to deal with greater threats in the region,” Harari said. “Israel isn’t supposed to see Egypt’s military buildup as a threat.”
“Egypt’s regional ambitions are, for the time being, not primarily directed at confronting Israel,” Wahba added. “Egypt’s security environment is increasingly complex, with conflict in Sudan, instability in Libya, tensions with Ethiopia and mounting domestic pressures all competing for Cairo’s attention.”
Still, mutual suspicion has never entirely disappeared. Egypt has spent the past decade modernizing its armed forces, purchasing advanced fighter aircraft, naval vessels, submarines and air defense systems while expanding military infrastructure across the country. Israeli analysts, including Dekel, do not see Egypt as an immediate military threat, but there is broad concern that much of the new equipment exceeds the requirements of Egypt’s sustained counterinsurgency effort in Sinai.
“Egypt’s military modernization deserves careful attention, especially given the scale and speed,” Wahba said. “But it should not automatically be interpreted as preparation for conflict.” The inauguration of the Octagon comes at a delicate moment. Its unveiling draws attention in Israel, where the combination of Egypt’s military modernization, ongoing border disagreements and the Palestinian issue raises questions about the long-term trajectory of the relationship.
“The peace treaty has repeatedly proven more durable than the political relationship surrounding it … because it reflects enduring strategic interest rather than mutual trust,” Wahba concluded. “The war has made cooperation more complicated and more necessary than ever.”