Voters Sour on Trump's Economy as Midterms Near

Nearly 8 in 10 voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of the cost of living, according to an AP-NORC poll taken less than four weeks before Election Day. About three-quarters disapprove of his performance on the economy. For households already stretched by rising prices, the numbers describe a political mood that’s hard to spin.

The poll, conducted Oct. 8-12, found roughly 8 in 10 voters named the economy or cost of living among their top issues. About two-thirds said the same of health care and the war in Iran. Immigration and crime ranked lower. Only about one-third of registered voters viewed Trump favorably, and a similar share approved of his job performance.

Who’s Feeling the Squeeze

Frustration crosses party lines. Diana Walker, a 65-year-old Democrat from Decatur, Georgia, put it bluntly: “The world is going backwards. We can barely afford anything. Everybody’s down. I don’t care if you’re a Democrat or Republican, we’re all catching hell.”

Republican voters voiced doubts, too. DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, said she plans to back GOP candidates but isn’t happy with the economy. “Everything’s going up,” she said, pointing to the war with Iran and other Trump decisions. “I don’t agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It’s making this country look bad.”

Among Republicans, just 44% approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and 54% approved of his economic leadership. Only 69% of Republican voters backed his foreign policy as the war in Iran stretched into its eighth month, despite his promises it would last four or five weeks.

A Fox News Poll reported by Newsweek put Trump’s approval at 36%, a record low for either term, with 64% disapproving. Among independents, approval sat at 22%. On inflation, it was also 22%, another new low. Seventy-four percent rated the economy negatively, 53% expected it to worsen next year, and 55% said inflation wasn’t at all under control. Drops among voters under 45, people without a college degree, non-white voters and households earning less than $50,000 a year drove the decline.

A Midterm as Referendum

Seven in 10 voters told Fox they’d vote in the midterms to send Trump a message. In a hypothetical House matchup, 54% backed the Democratic candidate and 45% the Republican. The AP-NORC survey found about half of registered voters preferred Democratic control of the House or Senate, roughly 4 in 10 preferred Republican control, and 15% were undecided. Democrats also showed more enthusiasm: about three-quarters called voting extremely important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans.

Columbia political scientist Robert Y. Shapiro said the Fox poll “shows how dire the situation is for Republicans, in that whatever Trump has been trying to do to help them is clearly not working.” He added, “Trump’s instinct here have been bad in trying to make the election about him. It is about him and that is the problem.” His suggested remedy: “If prices, especially given the latest report on inflation, are one problem, then deal with the tariffs that are a cause. And also the war in Iran affecting energy prices and the costs of other goods dependent directly or indirectly on oil.”

Syracuse’s Grant Davis Reeher took a more measured view. “Things were looking pretty bleak for the Republicans before; they just got slightly bleaker now, given that midterms are generally reactions to the president,” he said.

The Campaign Trail

In some battleground races, Republican candidates are trying to distance themselves from Trump’s tariffs. Trump, meanwhile, keeps campaigning. On Wednesday, he appeared in Arizona and Montana, emphasizing gun rights, national security and the economy, and repeated disputed claims about the 2022 Arizona election. In Bullhead City, he backed Rep. Andy Biggs, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, and criticized Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. He’s scheduled to rally Friday at Dalton Municipal Airport in Georgia.

Georgia offers a window into voter energy. The state recorded 188,667 in-person ballots on the first day of early voting, about 40% more than on the first day in 2022. Strategist Omar Ali, who has worked with Gov. Brian Kemp and former Vice President Kamala Harris, said concerns about federal policies and rising costs could be motivating voters. In the governor’s race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms appeared alone at an Atlanta Press Club debate Monday after Republican Rick Jackson declined the invitation.

Democrats are already planning for a House majority. Their 100-day agenda includes lowering grocery, gas and health care costs, restoring expanded Affordable Care Act tax credits, reversing Republican Medicaid cuts and seeking votes to end Trump’s tariffs. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also assigned lawmakers to prepare investigations into Trump, his family and his administration.

Why This Matters: About 8 in 10 voters call the economy or cost of living a top concern, and nearly the same share disapprove of the president’s handling of it. That makes the midterms a test of whether elected officials answer to household budgets. The Fox poll’s sharpest drops came among lower-income voters and those without college degrees, who have the least cushion against rising prices. Democrats say they’d use control of the House to restore expanded health care tax credits and reverse Medicaid cuts, directly affecting coverage and costs. Whatever the outcome Nov. 3, Georgia recorded 188,667 in-person ballots on the first day of early voting.