Billionaire Cash Tightens Grip on Texas Senate Race

On Oct. 27, Elon Musk contributed $158 million to support Ken Paxton as President Donald Trump rallied in Texas, turning a Senate contest into a blunt display of concentrated wealth and political power. Democratic candidate James Talarico accused Musk of trying to buy the seat. “Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars. And he wants his very own personal United States senator,” Talarico said on Oct. 20.

Trump held rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock to energize Republican voters for Paxton, the state attorney general, one week before Election Day. Talarico, a Democratic state representative and former public school teacher, held a Corpus Christi rally on Oct. 24 and was scheduled to appear in Lubbock on Thursday night. Polling averages showed a dead heat, with other reporting placing Talarico tied with or narrowly ahead of Paxton.

The contest could affect control of a Senate where Republicans held a 53-47 majority. A Talarico win would narrow that margin and threaten Trump’s legislative agenda and judicial confirmations during the final two years of his term. The price tag tells its own story: The New York Times reported Republicans had spent $1 billion on the race.

A Senate seat priced in billions

Talarico raised more than $146 million through Oct. 14; Paxton raised $22 million, including money for the Republican primary in which he defeated four-term Sen. John Cornyn. Through Oct. 20, outside groups had spent $153 million opposing Talarico and $13 million supporting him. They had spent $91 million supporting Paxton and $41 million opposing him. Musk’s $158 million contribution supported Paxton.

Talarico said his campaign had received nearly $140 million from individuals. Musk, who owns X and serves as Tesla and SpaceX’s CEO, became a top adviser to Trump as leader of the Department of Government Efficiency. His companies operate Texas facilities that include corporate headquarters, a rocket-testing facility, a spaceport for Starship and a Starlink manufacturing plant. Talarico’s campaign framed the contest as David against Goliath: “He might not have had as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith, and he had a slingshot. Corpus Christi, you are my slingshot.”

Trump said he needed Paxton to support his priorities. At a rally in San Antonio, he said, “A vote for Ken Paxton is a vote to save Texas and defend everything that made Texas great and makes America great.” He promoted domestic energy production amid criticism of high gas and grocery prices. He also said the war with Iran was worth its cost to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Ballots, polls and the limits of a win

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters in congressional races. Forty-four percent of likely voters said their congressional vote was mainly a vote against Trump; 21% viewed it as a vote for him, and 35% said he was not much of a factor. Trump’s job performance drew 40% approval and 59% disapproval among likely voters.

More than 30 million ballots had been cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The poll found that voters who had already voted favored Democrats 68% to 31%, while voters who had yet to vote were tied at 48%. Early-vote totals show who has cast a ballot, not how those voters will vote or who will turn out on Election Day.

The campaign’s electoral stakes come with institutional limits. In a separate CNN analysis, Democrats were expected to gain oversight powers and influence over spending if they won either chamber, but legislation would often require Republican support, and Trump could veto bills. Democrats weren’t expected to have enough votes to override a veto or enact measures without Republican support in the Senate. Trump put the arrangement plainly: “What happens is I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and they want to make a deal.”

The poll found 34% of likely voters named cost of living as a top issue and 33% named preserving democracy. Thirty-eight percent said their family finances had worsened over the past year. The ballot offers choices over who holds office; reported spending and veto powers show how much remains concentrated beyond voters’ reach.