Iowa Farm Costs Test Hinson as Trump Rallies for Senate

Diesel for Kelly Nieuwenhuis’s tractors and combines costs almost twice what it did earlier this year. That’s the backdrop as President Trump arrives in Sioux City, Iowa, Thursday to rally for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican running for the state’s open Senate seat. NBC News classifies her race as a toss-up.

The contest’s competitiveness is a surprise. Trump won Iowa by double digits in 2024. Now Republicans’ Senate majority could hinge on a race against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, and ideology isn’t driving it. It’s the cost of doing business.

The Farm-Country Squeeze

Nieuwenhuis farms 3,000 acres. A New York Times profile describes a man facing pressure from several directions at once. Diesel prices have nearly doubled because of the war in Iran. Fertilizer costs are rising as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on. And trade fights with China, Canada and Mexico have depressed sales of his corn and soybeans.

He voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but not in 2024. This year, he plans to split his ticket, backing Democrat Rob Sand for governor and Hinson for Senate. “It’s the economy, stupid,” he said. He recalled spending $16,000 to fill his farm’s fuel tanks in Primghar, Iowa, this fall. “Every election it comes down to the economy, and this policy is not working,” he said. “The Iran war, all the energy costs, the inflation — everything has gone up in price drastically.”

The figures support his frustration. Iowa’s economy contracted in 2025, recording the country’s weakest annual growth rate, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Beijing also boycotted American soybeans during last year’s U.S.-China trade war.

Hinson Draws a Line

Hinson has represented Iowa in the House since 2021 and once pledged to be Trump’s “top ally” in the Senate. Her tone has changed. At a debate earlier this month, she said she’d be his ally when it was “important for Iowa” but would “push back on him” when needed. “If he’s going to say something that’s wrong, I’m going to challenge him on it,” she told Fox News last week.

She’s acted on that stance. Hinson criticized Trump’s waiver of sanctions against Moscow. “I don’t think we need to be making any more deals with Russia,” she told reporters. She also called for an end to the Iran war, writing in a post that backed measures to fight high prices, including a pause on diesel exports: “The war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.”

But she wouldn’t support congressional constraints. When the House considered a September resolution to rein in Trump in Iran, Hinson voted against it, while two other Iowa Republicans in tight races supported it. “I don’t think we need another resolution,” she said. She added that she doesn’t “want to see the president not be able to do a orderly end to this war,” and said the goal is to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon and protect U.S. allies in the region.

Turek has seized on the vote. “We are in this situation because of this unnecessary war in Iran that Ashley Hinson voted in favor of continuing,” he said during a debate discussion of energy costs.

The Minivan and the Soybeans

Hinson has built her campaign around a minivan. “You want a mom, a minivan-driving mom who’s common sense, who’s driving that common sense back into Washington, D.C.,” she said, calling the race “a contrast election.” She described a five-minute call from Trump that appeared on her minivan’s caller ID as “DJT.” She said she used the call to thank him for efforts to move trade with China forward and asked about a deal for China to buy more soybeans. She didn’t appear at a September rally featuring Vice President JD Vance.

The Iowa ballot reaches well beyond the Senate. Democrat Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn for governor; incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds isn’t seeking re-election. In the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Christina Bohannan challenges Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. In the 3rd, Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott faces Republican Rep. Zach Nunn.

Elsewhere, NBC News reported on Senate debates in Michigan and Kansas. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a race polls show as a toss-up. Michigan’s contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers was described as neck-and-neck.

Trump’s Message the Night Before

On Wednesday in Pendleton, South Carolina, Trump touted his economic record. He said inflation had been 1.8 percent for the previous three months and that the stock market had set 88 all-time record highs since the election. He credited tariffs with prompting companies to build plants in the United States and claimed commitments of $22.2 trillion in new investment, though he stumbled over the figure, at one point saying “$22.2 million -- billion” and later repeating $22.2 billion. He said the United States had destroyed Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and that Iran would never have a nuclear weapon.

This is Trump’s second Iowa visit this year. He kicked off his midterm campaigning in the Des Moines area in January, after announcing plans for what he called the largest steel plant in U.S. history to be built in the state. Hinson’s reply at the time: “We’ll save you a good Iowa pork chop, sir.”

Why This Matters:

The Iowa race shows how quickly kitchen-table economics can outweigh partisan loyalty. A farmer who backed Trump twice is now splitting his ticket over diesel prices, fertilizer costs and shuttered export markets. For Republicans, the lesson is blunt: tariffs, trade fights and foreign wars carry costs that hit hardest among the producers who’ve traditionally anchored the party’s base. Hinson’s balancing act — supporting the president while publicly pushing back — reflects a candidate responding to those pressures. With the Senate majority on the line, the result may depend less on rally crowds than on whether voters like Nieuwenhuis believe prices will come down. That’s a verdict on policy results, and it’s coming in 12 days.