Trump Weighs Iran Escalation as War Hits Families

President Donald Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran after the war helped Democrats win the midterm elections, while families around the world face higher fuel prices and rising costs. The eight-month-old war remains unpopular with many voters, but the president has threatened to restart a full-scale bombardment if Tehran won't accept a settlement on his terms.

Sen.-elect Josh Turek of Iowa described what voters told him. "Wherever I went, I heard the same thing," he said. "They would say, Josh, I'm struggling just to keep food on the table, keep a roof above my head, pay my electric bill. And with this war in Iran, I'm struggling just to keep gas in my tank."

The costs land far from the decision-makers

The strikes and counterstrikes have caused tens of billions of dollars in damage across the region. Higher gas prices and rising costs across sectors have also affected families around the world. The war's military choices remain with the president and his administration; the financial shock reaches households trying to cover basic expenses.

About 6 in 10 voters said the United States made the "wrong decision" in taking military action against Iran, according to The AP Voter Poll, which surveyed more than 100,000 U.S. voters. The war mattered to about one-third of voters' congressional choices, while roughly half said the cost of living or government corruption was crucial. Nearly all voters who supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race called the war the wrong decision; roughly 8 in 10 Republican-candidate supporters called it the right one.

About 6 in 10 voters nationally said they were "very concerned" about gasoline and diesel costs. About two-thirds of that group voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. Yet an election result hasn't itself determined whether the administration will escalate: Trump is still weighing military options.

Oil is again moving through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. Navy escorts for international tankers. The conflict has also spread to the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels are fighting a Saudi Arabia-led coalition. The Houthis are attacking Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructure, seeking closer ties with militant groups across the Horn of Africa, and worsening a growing humanitarian crisis through attacks on areas held by Yemen's internationally recognized government.

The military menu remains open

A senior Yemeni government official said the regional threat from Iran and its proxy groups "did not change overnight" with the U.S. elections and urged Washington to avoid hasty decisions. The official wasn't authorized to comment publicly and spoke anonymously.

Brian Haggerty, a former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency who focused on Middle East security issues, said Trump might feel less politically constrained after the election. "There's reason to suspect that Trump may feel less restrained given that the political damage is done," Haggerty said. He added that the strategic logic of escalating strikes hadn't changed. Haggerty now works with Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank.

Haggerty said Trump could maintain something close to the current posture, with the U.S. military continuing what it calls "defensive strikes" and maintaining a naval blockade to restrict Iranian oil from reaching global markets. Another possibility is an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran's nuclear program and buried deep underground in central Iran. David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in Trump's first term, said Trump had repeatedly suggested he was considering targeting it.

Schenker said Trump could then claim he had sufficiently damaged Iran's nuclear program and pursue what he called a "fig leaf agreement." It could restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, provide Iran some sanctions relief and defer further nuclear talks. Another option is the massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure Trump had previously threatened.

Ballots, pressure and the next decision

Three Middle Eastern government officials said the administration had privately indicated through diplomatic channels that Trump might be more willing to restart strikes after Nov. 3, when he would have little left to lose politically. After the election defeat, the officials said, concern remained that he could be more emboldened to launch full-scale or new limited strikes. A fourth official said the result gave mediators some optimism about finding a way to resolve the conflict. The officials weren't authorized to comment publicly and spoke anonymously.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump to renew strikes against Iran during a weekend call, according to a person briefed on the call. Trump wouldn't commit to military action.

Vice President JD Vance put the war at the center of the Republican defeat. "The reason we lost," Vance wrote in a lengthy social media post, "is the war." Trump initially blamed the party's candidates for the losses. On Wednesday, he largely agreed with Vance's assessment that the war had been a catastrophe for Republicans, saying, "It's largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit."

Brent crude fell below $95 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest price in two months, a sign markets weren't expecting major strikes. Trump, meanwhile, defended starting the conflict: "At the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd do it again." He later said, "I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned I would have done nothing different."