Trump Tariff Pitch Meets Hard Inflation Data, Polls

Wholesale inflation hit a more than four-year high in September, according to data released Thursday. The figures came a day after President Donald Trump told rallygoers in Arizona that “tariffs don't cause inflation.”

The timing puts the White House in an awkward spot. With less than three weeks left in the campaign, Trump spent Wednesday touting his Canada trade policy and tariffs at rallies in Arizona and Montana, while the latest economic data went the other way.

The Rally Message

Trump called Canadian trade policies toward the United States “brutal,” saying, “They are brutal, and we don't take that crap anymore.” He again floated making Canada the 51st state. “They'll end up being the 51st state, because it's the only way it works,” he said, adding, “Just like Greenland.” He also said he never actually intended to invade Greenland, despite publicly keeping that option open.

Trump argued that tariffs and high oil prices were making the country richer. “Our country is making more money than it's ever made because of the fact that oil is so high,” he said in Bullhead City, Arizona. In oil-producing states, he said, “we're making a fortune.” He added, “I care more about the little person than I care about the big person.”

What the Data Say

Two days in a row brought unfavorable inflation indicators this week, including Thursday's wholesale reading. For more than a year, Trump has insisted there is no inflation and that the economy is in a “golden age.” Americans aren't buying it. A Pew Research Center poll last month found that 42% rated the economy “poor,” while 8 in 10 called it “fair” or “poor.” Both numbers set new highs for Trump's second term.

The tariff numbers are just as stark. When Trump introduced the recent tariffs on Canada, Americans opposed them 57%-20%, nearly a 3-to-1 margin. Recent surveys by Fox News, AP-NORC and CNN found about 7 in 10 Americans or registered voters disapproved of his handling of tariffs, giving him his worst numbers on the issue to date. Tariffs, unlike the Iran war, are an elective policy: the administration chose to pursue them and now chooses to promote them.

Annexation Talk Draws Little Support

The statehood proposals haven't attracted much support either. Polls last year found 75% or 80% opposed making Canada the 51st state, depending on the survey. A February poll found 72% disapproved of Trump's handling of Greenland.

Republicans Seek Distance

Republicans running in the 2026 midterms sought to distance themselves from a president described as historically unpopular heading into the elections. This week, the administration also appeared to step back from two other ideas: spending millions of taxpayer dollars on ads promoting Trump, and livestreaming the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan. Trump said he would use campaign money for the ads. On Thursday, he said the livestream wouldn't happen.

The public had little patience for either proposal. A Reuters-Ipsos poll last week found voters considered taxpayer-funded political ads inappropriate, 89%-9%. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Thursday found registered voters opposed livestreaming Hasan's execution, 80%-19%. Many Republicans warned against the livestream, calling it a gruesome idea that could hand Islamic extremists a propaganda victory by turning Hasan into a public martyr. Apparently, no one raised those doubts with Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, or they were dismissed. A separate Washington Post poll found registered voters opposed pardoning violent January 6 defendants, 83%-16%.

Why This Matters:

Tariffs are a tax on trade, and signs that voters feel the pinch keep piling up in Pew's economic ratings, the inflation data and poll after poll. When a president tells voters there's no inflation as wholesale prices climb to a four-year high, he risks damaging his credibility on the economy, historically the issue where Republicans have their strongest ground. For GOP candidates, the problem is practical: they're being asked to defend a policy most voters oppose, along with ideas like taxpayer-funded ads that nearly nine in ten voters reject. Fiscally minded Republicans have reason to want the party's message rooted in price stability and restraint, rather than trade fights with a neighbor and ally. In the final weeks, the question is whether the party can separate its economic case from the president's tariff push.