Prices Squeeze GOP as Midterms Near, Farm Belt Wobbles

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. The increase now hangs over Republican campaigns in places the party once took for granted. Democrats lead the Real Clear Politics average of recent Senate polls in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, all four states President Donald Trump carried by double digits.

The Message and the Mood

Trump isn't backing off. At an Oct. 10 rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, he said, "Our first term, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, and we're blowing it away. In the real economy we are blowing it away." Four days later, on his way to a Montana rally, he said, "We're doing great." He's been touting tax cuts and stock market growth, and he campaigns almost every day.

Voters aren't buying it. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 17% approve of his handling of cost-of-living issues, 65% blame him for high prices and 61% say the economy is worse than when he took office. A Fox News survey released Oct. 14 showed 29% of voters think he's doing a good job on the economy, down from 43% shortly after he took office and a first-term high of 56%. Pew found 42% rate the economy poor.

The stock market's strength doesn't help much at the checkout line. "It's hard to tell people what they feel is wrong," said Mike DuHaime, a former political director for the Republican National Committee. "Whether or not the stock market goes up or not doesn't matter if I can't afford groceries."

Tariffs, War and the Price Tag

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found Trump's tariffs had "economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices," estimating the cost of 67 goods rose 2.9% through February. The war with Iran added more pressure. Gas prices rose 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the overall increase, and they're up 34.2% for the year. Before the U.S. invasion of Iran at the end of February, inflation had fallen to 2.4%. It never dropped below the Federal Reserve's 2% target at any point in Trump's second term.

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers rated the economy in the "B" range, pointing to low unemployment and a strong stock market. But he said the White House has squandered an opening. "The president was dealt a really good hand," Wolfers said. "This could have been great and maybe it's just OK."

Trump has responded with a string of giveaways: a promised $5,000 for every adult if Republicans keep Congress, $500 rebate checks tied to Affordable Care Act overcharges, and $90 payments to 21 million seniors. He's also moving to ease tariffs on beef and buy Russian diesel. Some on the right accused him of bribing voters and rewarding Russia.

The Farm Belt Feels It

The squeeze hits farms especially hard. Diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide on Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier, according to AAA. The USDA projects net farm income will fall 2.6% this year as production expenses climb 4.5%. Fuel and oil costs alone are expected to jump nearly 30%.

"It's coming at us from all directions," said Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation Kansas farmer and president of the Kansas Farm Bureau. He said many farmers "thought it would be better" under Trump. "He's made some unforced errors," Brunkow said. "Miscalculations, bad advice, that had unintended consequences."

David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, put it plainly. "Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs," he said. "The economic environment has not been good." His group is spending millions for Republicans in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere.

The money tells the story. Senate Republicans have spent nearly $15 million in Nebraska, where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in a state Trump won by 20 points. In Kansas, which Trump won by 16 points, Democrats haven't taken a Senate seat in 94 years, yet Sen. Roger Marshall now faces a real challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Trump visits Kansas Monday and Iowa on Thursday.

Republicans Split on the Pitch

Some Republican candidates are distancing themselves from the White House. Rep. Ashley Hinson, running for the Senate in Iowa, called for an immediate end to the war: "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran." Former Rep. Mike Rogers, running in Michigan, said, "Prices are too high and Canada is not our enemy. We need to end the tariff war — now."

Vice President JD Vance struck a humbler note, asking Americans to give the administration "another couple of years." Marc Short, a former Trump liaison to Congress, was blunt. Voters wanted the lackluster economy and high inflation under Biden solved, he said, "but he hasn't." Sean Spicer suggested "a bit of a tweak": "Address the concerns but let them know that it's getting better."

Trump conceded at a Sept. 30 event, "I've done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing." House Speaker Mike Johnson argued surveys under-sample MAGA Republicans who distrust pollsters. Harrison Fields, a former Trump deputy press secretary, pointed to tax cuts, deregulation and investment flowing back into the country.

Discontent reaches loyal voters too. Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, said he's "so fed up with the Republican Party and their willingness to play sycophant to our current commander in chief that I'm willing to consider alternatives." He still backs a secure border, but wants workable immigration policy that supplies the workforce the country depends on.

Why This Matters:

Republicans won in 2024 largely on a promise to fix prices. Voters now say the fix hasn't arrived, and the party's own strategists agree. Tariffs and an overseas war carry costs that show up in diesel tanks and grocery bills, and no stock market gain or one-time rebate check erases that for a family or a farm. The $12 billion farm aid package and new payments signal a government stepping in to patch problems that policy helped create. For fiscally minded conservatives, that's a worrying pattern. If heavily Republican farm states are competitive three weeks before Nov. 3, the party's economic brand is at risk, and voters will judge results rather than rhetoric.