Trump's Tariffs and War Push Costs Into Midterm Race

“It seems like it’s coming at us from all directions,” said Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation Kansas farmer, as diesel costs, unpredictable markets and shrinking profits bear down on farmers before the midterm elections. The squeeze runs into President Donald Trump’s claim that the economy is strong, as voters and researchers point to policies they say have pushed costs higher.

For Brunkow, diesel cost more than $2.50 per gallon than it did a year earlier. Nationwide, diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon on Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier, according to AAA. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected net farm income would fall 2.6% this year as production expenses climbed 4.5%; fuel and oil expenses alone were expected to rise nearly 30%.

Who Pays for the Economic Pitch

The AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll, conducted Sept. 8-15, found that only about 2 in 10 Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. About one-quarter approved of his performance as president overall. A vast majority considered the economy one of the most important election issues, and respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on a wide range of issues, though opinions of the Democratic Party remained split.

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Inflation stood at 3% when Trump took office and has climbed since. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Trump’s tariffs had “economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices,” estimating that levies pushed the cost of 67 goods up 2.9% through February.

The war with Iran disrupted Middle East energy exports and sent fuel prices higher. Gas prices jumped 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the overall price increase, and rose 34.2% for the year. Inflation had fallen to 2.4% before the U.S. invasion of Iran at the end of February. It stayed elevated afterward and never dropped below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target during Trump’s second term.

Promises, Payments and the Ballot Box

At a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Oct. 10, Trump said, “In the real economy we are blowing it away.” He has touted tax cuts and stock market growth, called inflation “very low” in recent months and said on Oct. 14, “We’re doing great.” Yet a recent AP-NORC poll found that 17% approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, 65% blamed him for high prices and 61% said the economy was worse than when he took office.

Trump has offered payments and targeted cost measures even as he defends tariffs and the decision to attack Iran. He promised $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans retained control of Congress, then announced $500 rebate checks for Americans he said had been overcharged for Affordable Care Act health policies and $90 payments to 21 million seniors. He also announced a plan to ease tariffs on beef imports and a deal to buy Russian diesel. Some on the right called the proposals bribery and said they rewarded Russia, which faced heavy U.S. and allied sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

Republicans now face electoral headwinds in states and districts they once considered safer ground. Democrats led the Real Clear Politics average of recent Senate polls in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, each of which Trump carried by double digits. Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina also appeared increasingly competitive. The campaign asks voters to choose between parties as household bills, tariffs and the costs of war remain tied to the same governing machinery.

Farmers described the strain in direct terms. Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, pointed to tariffs hurting farm businesses, the ongoing war with Iran and immigration raids in western Kansas that led to the detention of more than 100 people. He said the country needed a secure border, but also “workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.”

Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, Kansas, said higher health care and everyday costs had deepened her frustration. She had never voted for a Democrat and remained undecided after meeting Democrat Adam Hamilton at a local market. “The Republicans haven’t done the Midwest any favors with that,” she said of trade agreements.

Republican candidates have tried to put distance between themselves and parts of Trump’s agenda. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican running for the Senate in Iowa, called for an immediate end to the war, saying Iowans “shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line.” Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, running for the Senate in Michigan, called for an end to the Iran conflict and the trade war with Canada: “Prices are too high and Canada is not our enemy.”

Trump’s allies have challenged the polling. House Speaker Mike Johnson said surveys under-sample MAGA Republicans, who distrust traditional pollsters. A senior administration official said the White House needed to remind people of its successes and contrast them with what Democrats would do. The pitch is to give the administration another chance at the ballot box. The bills keep arriving.