Prices Squeeze Voters as Trump Calls Economy 'Golden Age'

Consumer prices climbed 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, even as President Donald Trump told a Tennessee rally that “in the real economy we are blowing it away.” Inflation stood at 3% when he took office. It hasn’t come down since.

That gap between the president’s message and the grocery receipt now poses the central problem for Republicans heading into the Nov. 3 midterms. Polls show most voters worry about prices, and most blame Trump.

What Voters Are Saying

The numbers are stark. A Pew Research Center survey released this month found 21% of Americans rating the economy good, 37% fair and 42% poor. Sixty-five percent said Trump’s policies had made things worse. An AP-NORC poll found just 17% approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, while 65% blamed him for high prices and 61% said the economy was worse than when he took office. A Fox News survey released Oct. 14 put his economic approval at 29%, down from 43% shortly after he returned to office and a first-term high of 56%.

Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults have soured, too. An AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll conducted Sept. 8-15 found about one-quarter approved of Trump’s performance overall, and only about 2 in 10 approved of his handling of the economy. Democrats held a substantial edge among that group on the economy and health care, though views of the Democratic Party itself remained split.

Tariffs, War and the Pump

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found Trump’s tariffs had “economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices,” estimating that the cost of 67 goods rose 2.9% through February because of the levies. The war with Iran then disrupted Middle East energy exports. Gas prices rose 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the overall increase, and are up 34.2% for the year. Before the U.S. invasion of Iran at the end of February, inflation had fallen to 2.4%. It never dropped below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target during Trump’s second term.

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers rated the economy in the “B” range, citing low unemployment and a healthy stock market. But he said Trump’s policies had held back stronger growth. “The president was dealt a really good hand,” Wolfers said. “This could have been great and maybe it’s just OK. We face a certain number of headwinds but every one of them is caused by the administration.”

Mike DuHaime, a former Republican National Committee political director, put it plainly: “Whether or not the stock market goes up or not doesn’t matter if I can’t afford groceries.”

Farm Country Feels It

The pressure reaches deep into Trump-friendly territory. Diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide on Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier, according to AAA. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will fall 2.6% this year as production expenses rise 4.5%, with fuel and oil costs alone up nearly 30%.

“It seems like it’s coming at us from all directions,” said Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation Kansas farmer and president of the Kansas Farm Bureau. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat who began farming in 1978, said the economics of family farming may now be worse than in the 1980s. “These guys got to pay bills at the end of the month, and for a number of months now it’s been hard to do,” he said. “This is way beyond politics.”

Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, cited tariffs, the Iran war and immigration raids that led to the detention of more than 100 people. “We need a secure border,” he said, “but we also need workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on.” He added he’s “so fed up with the Republican Party” that he’s willing to consider alternatives.

The White House Response

Trump has promised $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans keep Congress, announced $500 rebate checks tied to Affordable Care Act overcharges and $90 payments to 21 million seniors, and proposed easing tariffs on beef imports. He also announced a deal to buy Russian diesel, drawing criticism from some on the right who said he was rewarding Russia and bribing voters. Earlier this month he signed an order easing limits on tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, and the administration announced a $12 billion farmer aid package in December.

House Speaker Mike Johnson argued that surveys under-sample MAGA Republicans. Trump himself said at a Sept. 30 event, “I’ve done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing.” Sean Spicer, his first-term press secretary, suggested a tweak: “Address the concerns but let them know that it’s getting better.”

The political map is shifting anyway. Democrats lead the Real Clear Politics average of recent Senate polls in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, all states Trump carried by double digits. Kansas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate election in 94 years, is now a concern for Republicans. In Nebraska, Senate Republicans have spent nearly $15 million on a race in a state Trump won by 20 points. Some Republican candidates are breaking with the president. Rep. Ashley Hinson, running for the Senate in Iowa, wrote that “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.”

Why This Matters: Rising prices land hardest on people with the least cushion: families stretching paychecks at the grocery store, seniors on fixed incomes, and farmers who can’t pass fuel costs along. Polling suggests voters judge the economy by what they pay, not by market indexes. That distinction matters for how policy gets measured. Tariffs and the Iran war, both choices made by the administration, are tied in the reporting to higher costs, while one-time rebate checks and targeted tax breaks don’t change the underlying price level. When Republicans in competitive races begin calling for an end to the war and the tariff fight, it signals that cost-of-living pain is cutting across party lines. What voters decide on Nov. 3 may hinge on whether they believe the government is working for their household budgets.