Sen. Thom Tillis says President Donald Trump’s attacks pushed him toward retirement, leaving Republicans to defend a North Carolina seat against popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper. “Ack Mr. President. Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement,” Tillis texted Trump. Trump replied, “I am! DJT.” Tillis left the race, and Cooper entered it. The exchange shows how a president’s choices can reshape who gets to compete for power—and leave voters with candidates selected through party maneuvering.
The choices at the top
The contests in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina could complicate Republicans’ effort to hold or gain Senate seats in 2026. None is certain to have changed because of Trump’s actions. But if the fight for a majority is close, Republicans could regret the decisions he made.
In Texas, Trump said he had “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. Paxton hasn’t repaired his image since the runoff: he’s more than 10 points underwater in most polls, including by around 20 points in two recent polls, and three polls showed him trailing Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points.
Cornyn isn’t popular either, and Democrats are competitive in red states such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary. Cornyn has continued to avoid supporting Paxton. CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio in which Paxton privately claimed Cornyn wanted him to lose.
Trump had mocked Paxton’s appearance, dress and speech. Paxton also faces an impeachment and criminal charges. After the primary, the conventional expectation was that Trump would endorse Cornyn, who was thought to have a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon,” but didn’t endorse Cornyn. Weeks later, as Paxton was about to win the runoff, Trump backed him.
Who pays for the party’s choices
In North Carolina, Tillis might have struggled against Cooper, but he’d have had the advantage of incumbency. The GOP rallied around former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley instead. Whatley’s image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News, and the GOP may be giving up on a state Trump carried in all three of his elections.
In Georgia, Trump backed Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff in June. Collins was the more MAGA candidate; Dooley had the backing of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes clashed with Trump. Collins faced questions about past controversies, and later disclosures raised questions about his apparent ties to white nationalists. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is popular, making it perhaps unlikely Dooley would have made the race competitive. The GOP has shown signs of giving up on the contest.
South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, has become another concern for Republicans, though they’re considered unlikely to lose the seat. The GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to bolster appointed Sen. Darline Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews. Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, had been little known before Trump backed her appointment in July to replace her brother. Trump and Graham then decided she should run for a full term.
Some GOP voters have discussed writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham. Party insiders objected to elevating a newcomer over more established politicians who had waited years for a Senate vacancy. The race’s closeness is unclear, and quality polling was still awaited. Trump recently attacked Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur.
The machinery has done this before
Trump and his political operation have previously backed candidates who struggled to win and made it harder for Republicans to capture Senate seats. After Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, turnout in Georgia’s January 5, 2021, Senate runoffs fell disproportionately in heavily conservative areas. Republicans had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs before then, but lost ground in those contests.
Trump later acknowledged that supposed voter fraud had turned off GOP voters. He said he hadn’t urged them as strongly as he could have to trust Georgia election officials because he was angry. The article says events after the runoffs, on January 6, 2021, spared Trump a reckoning over the results. In 2022, he proceeded to make what the article describes as curious endorsement decisions.
The distinction in 2026 is that Trump, as president, must deal with whoever holds the Senate majority. If Paxton loses and Democrats have a bare majority, Trump’s failure to endorse Cornyn might emerge as “the” decisive moment of the election. Trump said he had “no regrets.”