Americans’ confidence in the economy fell in July as gas prices rose again after the U.S. and Iran stepped up their fighting. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June. That left working people stuck in the same tepid range it’s occupied since the beginning of the year, while late 2024 and early 2025 had readings well above 100.
Who Pays for the Bombs
Gas prices had briefly eased in June, when the average dropped to around $3.70 a gallon from more than $4.50 a gallon in late April and early May. Then the fighting in the Middle East escalated, and the bill came back around. On Tuesday, AAA put the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. at $4.10. The people who drive to work, haul kids around, and stretch every dollar don’t get a vote in those decisions. They get the receipt.
After being attacked by the U.S. and Israel in late February, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil travels. That move sent gas prices up and accelerated inflation, while Americans’ inflation-adjusted incomes declined. The machinery of state violence doesn’t stay overseas. It lands in the grocery aisle, the gas pump, and the rent check.
The Cost of “Order”
Americans remained sour on the economy after five years of elevated inflation, and that carried political risk for President Donald Trump and Republicans in the midterm elections, now less than 100 days away. Trump kept blaming inflation on his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden. The numbers tell a harsher story than the blame game. Inflation had risen since Trump’s inauguration last year, to 3.5% from 3% in January 2025. It jumped even further after the Iran war began Feb. 28, when it was just 2.4%.
Write-in responses to the survey, collected from July 1 to July 22, stayed pessimistic. The Board said references to gas prices were down slightly but remained elevated. Mentions of food and grocery prices increased. That’s where the pressure really shows. Not in speeches. In carts.
Government data showed that buying food to bring home had gotten 33% more expensive since the beginning of 2019. People responded the way ordinary people always do when the system squeezes harder: couponing, comparison shopping and cutting back on favorite foods. The biggest jump in grocery prices in a half-century didn’t come with a rescue plan. It came with adaptation from below.
What People Are Forced to Absorb
Beef became the symbol of runaway grocery prices for many Americans. The price of a pound of ground beef reached $6.82 in June, 79% more than at the beginning of 2019, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That’s not abstract inflation. That’s dinner getting priced out.
References to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly this month, and views of the current job market fell. Expectations for the labor market six months from now improved slightly, but stayed in negative territory. U.S. employers slowed hiring last month and added only 57,000 jobs, less than half the previous month’s total. The unemployment rate declined to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, though the drop mostly happened because many people out of work gave up looking and were no longer counted as unemployed.
The number of consumers who mentioned war and geopolitics decreased this month, but the Board said recent escalation in fighting between Iran and the U.S. could push those mentions higher in the next survey. The state and its rivals can trade blows, issue statements, and count votes. Ordinary people count gas, groceries, and whether the paycheck still covers the week.