U.S. Warns Allies as Iran Strike Threat Looms

U.S. officials have told several Middle East countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes against Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections—and for Iran to retaliate, two diplomats briefed on the warnings said. They spoke anonymously because they weren't authorized to discuss the warnings.

President Donald Trump hasn't made a final decision. He has repeatedly said he's weighing military action after the election, while the White House and U.S. officials declined to comment. For people across the region, that uncertainty comes with a concrete military forecast: officials told allies a new round of action could last several days and urged them to protect energy facilities and other crucial infrastructure from possible Iranian strikes.

Military plans, civilian exposure

Regional officials are preparing for retaliation by Iran and its proxy groups, the diplomats said, a response that could extend the conflict. The warning describes a chain of state and military decisions: governments prepare for attacks and counterattacks, while people living near strategic infrastructure face the risks.

The U.S. hasn't struck Iran since early September. Late last month, the Pentagon sent the USS Theodore Roosevelt and amphibious landing ships carrying Marines from San Diego to the Persian Gulf. Roughly 9,000 troops joined the deployment. A U.S. official said the move could create a regional naval presence of more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, with hundreds of aircraft. In April, the Navy had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East for the first time since 2003.

The war began in late February and is in its first year. It has already spread beyond Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports; a Saudi-led coalition has answered with deadly attacks on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. The sequence is plain: armed actors strike. Others answer. Officials prepare for the next turn.

Diplomacy beside the deployment

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday on X that Tehran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed.” He said Iran was working with mediators to review ideas in a proposal Tehran floated last month. Trump summarily rejected it, but Iran still wants the proposal to serve as the basis for a return to a ceasefire.

The United Arab Emirates foreign ministry urged both sides to “exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions to help contain tensions” and prevent a return to full-scale operations. The appeal comes alongside preparations for renewed military action. The article reports the warning and the call for political solutions, but no agreement to stop the fighting.

The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that the U.S. had briefed Gulf nations to prepare for possible escalation. It's unclear how soon after Election Day the U.S. military could be ready to resume strikes. Decision-makers hold that uncertainty. The consequences of escalation would reach beyond them.

The election and the price of war

Trump has campaigned for Republicans in recent weeks while remaining evasive about his plans for Iran. The war has weighed on Republican candidates as they appeal to voters tired of rising gasoline prices. The article describes the increases as a byproduct of the war, which has raised costs across nearly every sector of the global economy. The Pentagon's latest estimate to Congress put the cost to U.S. taxpayers at $47.1 billion.

At a campaign stop in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, Trump said a conclusive end to the conflict could come “in a couple of weeks, if you don't mind.” Earlier in the same address, he said: “Somebody asked me before, when will the war in Iran end? I said, 'Whenever I want it to end.' It'll be very quick, but we have to have it end properly, with total and complete -- a total statement, they will never have a nuclear weapon.” The promise of an ending and the threat of more bombing came from the same campaign stop.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said Tehran could act before the election if it believes U.S. action is imminent. “Why would they wait until after the elections here ... if they could initiate it and potentially gain the upper hand?” he said. Warnings, deployments and public threats leave diplomacy in the shadow of governments preparing for another round of force.