Washington's Power Struggle Puts Latin America at Risk

Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, setting up a fight with President Donald Trump over who controls policy toward Latin America. Eric Jacobstein and Emily Mendrala say Congress will seek to reclaim authority while Trump, facing opposition at home, may become more assertive abroad. The region gets to live with the consequences of that contest between powerful institutions.

A Check on Power, Not a Change of System

The authors’ analysis, published November 4, 2026, calls the result a “blue wave” stronger than they expected. It restores a congressional check on Trump’s approach, they write, but presidents facing resistance on Capitol Hill often turn toward foreign policy, where they retain considerable authority. Their forecast: more turbulence in U.S. policy toward Latin America over the next two years than in the previous two.

The change in Congress also puts regional leaders’ political bets under scrutiny. Colombia’s Abelardo De La Espriella, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado endorsed Representative Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who appeared most likely to win narrowly. Jacobstein and Mendrala call those endorsements shortsighted: they tied foreign leaders and national causes to one side of an American election, inserted them into U.S. democratic elections and complicated relationships with Democrats.

Representative Gregory Meeks (D-NY), expected to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned in October that De La Espriella’s electoral intervention jeopardized bipartisan U.S. support for Colombia. “Congress will be watching,” Meeks said. His longstanding commitment to Colombia across administrations makes his leadership important to Colombia and the wider Americas region, the authors said. That’s the machinery of diplomacy: leaders seek access to Washington’s shifting centers of power, while the people affected by policy have no comparable seat at the table in this account.

Representative Joaquin Castro (D-TX), expected to lead the House Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, sought subpoenas in September for records about the administration’s oil agreement in Venezuela involving North American Blue Energy Partners, a controversial Barbados-based company. Republicans blocked the motion. With a majority, Castro can pursue the investigation, the analysis says.

Oversight Has Limits

In the Senate, Tim Kaine (D-VA) is likely to lead the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee. Senator Chris Coons (D-DE), the likely next Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has challenged the administration’s Venezuela policy in hearings and through war powers votes. Earlier this year, Coons pressed Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the failure to consult Congress before Maduro’s removal and backed efforts to restrict further military operations.

The authors say deals in Venezuela and elsewhere in the Americas should face scrutiny over who benefits and whether corruption is involved. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), likely the next Speaker of the House, has identified countering corruption as Democrats’ guiding principle for oversight next year. Senate confirmations are likely to slow, particularly for controversial non-career nominees; career diplomats with bipartisan credibility should fare better. Regional governments should expect vacancies and reliance on acting officials.

Immigration enforcement will be another target. Democrats plan to investigate ICE’s conduct, detention practices and spending, but scrutiny won’t necessarily cut off the money: Republican reconciliation laws provided substantial enforcement resources to ICE through 2029. The Trump administration’s use of El Salvador’s CECOT prison under its arrangement with Nayib Bukele will face renewed questions about legal authority to transfer detainees, their treatment and Washington’s financing commitments. The authors also flag arrangements sending migrants to unsafe third countries or places where integration will be difficult.

Congress’s strongest lever is the purse. The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will debate the administration’s dismantling of foreign assistance and withholding of approved funds, as Democrats seek to reclaim spending authority. Conditions, disclosure and compliance with spending laws are expected to be part of the fight. Any funding agreements still require negotiations with Republicans and the White House; further shutdowns remain possible.

Foreign Policy, With the Force Still There

Jacobstein and Mendrala urge Democrats to pair oversight with an affirmative regional agenda. They say investigations into illegal and ineffective lethal boat strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific are essential, and call for credible legislative alternatives on security. Their analysis names Americans facing overdose deaths and Latin Americans confronting organized crime as people who deserve effective policy responses. Democrats also plan to consider legislation quickly to end Trump’s global tariffs and restore congressional control over trade policy. The remedies described remain congressional oversight and legislation; the article names no grassroots or community-led response.

Cuba is the clearest place to watch, the authors say. Constrained domestically, Trump may find confrontation with the Caribbean island attractive, through aggressive negotiations intended to force economic and political change or through military force. Military action seemed less likely in the short term than several months earlier, principally because hostilities in Iran had resumed. But the authors say his willingness to use force and ambitions toward Cuba must be taken seriously, especially if Havana refuses to negotiate; they warn against assuming he will retreat or that a Democratic Congress will check his power over Cuba.

U.S. strikes against criminal groups in Mexico remain possible and could have profound consequences for bilateral cooperation and ongoing USMCA negotiations. The Panama Canal could return to Trump’s agenda, the authors add. They urge governments and businesses to engage Congress early while preparing for a president determined to assert U.S. power abroad as his options narrow at home. A new congressional majority can contest the apparatus. It doesn’t make the decisions affecting the region any less concentrated in Washington.