GOP Redistricting Map Falls Short in Florida, N.C.

Republican lawmakers redrew Florida districts to favor their party, but Democrats won three of them, while also flipping a North Carolina seat included in the Republican redistricting effort. The early results pointed to a shortfall for a strategy meant to help Republicans hold control of the House. The mapmakers drew the lines. Voters delivered a different result.

The Mapmakers’ Advantage

Florida’s new 22nd Congressional District was among the Democratic wins. Pia Dandiya, a former high school principal, defeated Casey Askar, a Republican businessman and former Marine, in a district stretching west from Broward County to Marco Island on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Republican lawmakers reshaped the district this year as one of four Florida districts they gerrymandered to favor their party. President Trump won it by 10 percentage points in 2024, but the contest between Dandiya, of Palm Beach Gardens, and Askar, of Naples, was competitive. Neither candidate was well known to voters, and the race centered on the economy and corruption.

Dandiya’s parents immigrated from India. She was set to become Florida’s first South Asian member of Congress. The result arrived in a state whose election results tend to be reported earlier and faster than those of many other states, offering clues about races elsewhere. Democrats did well nationally in the 2022 and 2018 midterms but have struggled in Florida, which has become more Republican-leaning.

The North Carolina result also cut against the expected advantage of the Republican redistricting effort. Jamie Ager, a Democratic farmer, won a heavily conservative congressional district in the state’s western region, encompassing rural mountain towns. The 11th Congressional District hadn’t been expected to be competitive for Democrats, even with Asheville’s liberal population growing. Ager’s win was described as reflecting the importance of candidate quality and increased competitiveness in many rural areas.

Ballots, Parties and Power

Across the country, Democrats had early victories and strong showings in states and districts where Republicans had won by large margins for years. According to The Associated Press, Democrats flipped a Senate seat in North Carolina and maintained control of seats in Georgia and New Hampshire. They also flipped a House seat in western North Carolina. Senate races in South Carolina and Texas remained uncalled in the report, despite Democratic candidates posting strong margins in counties that had reported most of their votes.

The election report described turnout as strong nationwide, with millions voting in an election characterized as the first national mandate on President Trump’s second term. In major Senate battlegrounds, early turnout exceeded that of the previous midterm cycle. Texas turnout could exceed 10 million votes, topping the total from each of the previous two midterms. In Georgia, Election Day turnout was on track to exceed the 2024 presidential election, the Georgia secretary of state said.

The account is about candidates, party control and votes cast inside the electoral system; it reports no grassroots organizing or mutual-aid response. And while the results show voters choosing representatives, the same account describes lawmakers using district lines to tilt the contest before those votes were counted. A win can change who holds a seat. It doesn’t, by itself, change who gets to draw the lines.

More Races, Unsettled Outcomes

Texas races had not yet been called. The report said James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, was doing well in reported counties, but it established no outcome for Talarico or Ken Paxton. In a separate Texas race, Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa was running for governor against the sitting governor, Greg Abbott; early returns were reported, but no final result was given.

In Florida, Senator Ashley Moody defeated Angie Nixon, a progressive Democrat, in a close Senate contest to complete the term of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In Georgia, The Associated Press called Keisha Lance Bottoms’s victory for governor. Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, became the first Black woman to hold the office in the country’s history and the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since 1998. Rick Jackson, a billionaire entrepreneur and Republican political novice who entered the race late and spent more than $100 million of his own money, conceded. “Tonight the voters spoke, and I respect their decision. Keisha Lance Bottoms deserves our gratitude, congratulations and our prayers as she prepares to take office,” he said.

Other results included Chris Pappas defeating former Senator John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, becoming the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate. In Florida’s governor’s race, Representative Byron Donalds defeated David Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat, according to The Associated Press. The report also described wins by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York’s 14th District, Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York and Gov. Ned Lamont in Connecticut. The immediate verdict on the Republican map-making strategy was narrower: the targeted gains weren’t arriving as planned.