US War Power Becomes Tehran's Leverage

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, used the Republican Party's midterm defeat to argue that Washington had failed to achieve its objectives in an eight-month-long war. In a post on X dated November 7, he mocked the Trump administration: "You lost the war and the election. Vance has conceded, Rubio is heading for the exit, Hegseth is about to be fired, and the Centcom commander is now a podcaster! So, Who exactly in Washington do we need to get this message across to?" He added: "Start a war, and you'll face a devastating response."

Rezaei's post portrayed Washington's leadership as admitting defeat, facing an uncertain future or losing its grip on the conflict. The election has become another instrument in the contest between state powers, with Iranian officials using the Republicans' poor result to press for better terms while the war's consequences remain unresolved.

War Becomes Bargaining Power

Tehran believes Trump is under domestic pressure and should pay more to end the war. Iranian hardliners, who believe Iran has already won, are urging their government to hold its ground in negotiations instead of making concessions. Conservative politicians and media outlets are seeking a settlement that changes the regional balance of power; some advocate a "new world order" that gives Iran a stronger position.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned on Wednesday against the "slightest inclination towards submission" in a statement following the US election results. Hardliners believe the warning was aimed at Iranian negotiators in talks with Washington. The source describes leaders and political outlets setting the terms of debate; it does not describe a grassroots or community response.

Raja News, a hardline outlet, argued that the United States should not be allowed an easy exit from the war. Washington must "pay the price" for attacking Iran, its columnist wrote, warning against letting Trump "escape with a rushed agreement." The columnist added: "The achievements of the Iranian people and the capital gained... should not be undermined by providing a way out for the other side." The article said the column called for increasing power, maximizing pressure on the US and energy prices, and making the enemy regret its actions.

Trump and Vice President JD Vance linked the Republicans' poor midterm performance to the war's economic fallout. Trump acknowledged in a call with Fox News that the conflict had partly contributed to the party's defeat. In a lengthy post on X on Wednesday, Vance wrote, "the reason we lost is the war." Iranian conservatives cited those comments as evidence that the conflict had become a political liability for Trump. An election result has sharpened the pressure, but it hasn't ended the war or settled who controls the terms of negotiations.

Talks Without a Breakthrough

Eight months into the conflict, neither side appeared close to a decisive outcome. Military action had slowed, while diplomatic efforts had not produced a breakthrough. Iranian negotiators had travelled between Tehran and Doha in recent weeks as Qatar tried to bridge differences. A proposed agreement is expected to lead to negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and an end to the war.

A regional official told CNN on Thursday that the risk of another war with Iran had eased after the Republican midterm defeat, though escalation remained possible. In October, Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections but didn't say whether strikes could resume afterward. Iran had threatened to widen retaliatory strikes if attacked again.

Over the past week, the United States carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, including one on Thursday night. Both sides played down the intensity of the attacks, apparently seeking to keep them from disrupting negotiations. Trump hasn't ruled out further military action. "Now we're making a decision, do we want to go further? I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I'll have to," he told reporters on Thursday. "You'll know soon enough."

Diplomatic activity increased after Tuesday's midterm elections. Qatar said on Friday that Trump had spoken by phone with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani about efforts to de-escalate the conflict. A day earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with counterparts in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Qatar.

Tehran has set out seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including ending the war on all fronts, paying compensation, withdrawing US forces and lifting sanctions. The article said it was unclear whether Washington would accept any of the demands. The officials are bargaining over borders, military force and sanctions; the people living with the consequences don't get to set those terms.