Reported U.S.-Israeli Strike Plans Put Civilians at Risk

Iran said seven oil tankers caught fire or suffered damage overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran hit them or they struck naval mines. The Associated Press couldn’t independently confirm the claims. Iran’s state television, citing the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy, reported no casualties. Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli officials are reportedly discussing strikes that would carry costs far beyond the rooms where military decisions get made.

Iran threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the region if Washington kept helping guide commercial ships through the strait. Tehran asserts control over the waterway and uses it as leverage in talks with Washington. Oil shipments continue, but sailors face growing risks and costs. Operators moving oil at night switch off location systems and mobile phones, while ship-to-ship transfers can take several days.

Who Sets the Terms

The New York Times reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed renewed strikes on Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. TIME reported that the United States and Israel were drawing up plans for major strikes after the November midterms, potentially targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. President Donald Trump hasn’t approved the proposed strikes, according to The Times.

That distinction matters. The reports describe strike plans, not approved action. People who would face the consequences don’t get a seat in the deliberations described in those reports. A return to full fighting would endanger civilians across the region and disrupt deliveries of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer, likely sending prices sharply higher again.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday that Tehran remained wary but open to diplomacy and ready to defend itself. Iran has promoted a proposal to end the war and fully reopen the strait within a week if the United States met conditions, including ending its blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump rejected the proposal in late September, though both sides have acknowledged that indirect discussions continued. TIME reported that Iranian leaders said this week they wouldn’t negotiate directly unless Washington ended its naval blockade and released frozen Iranian funds.

Election Clocks, Military Choices

Israel’s election is scheduled for Oct. 27, and U.S. midterm elections are in November. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a former Iran specialist in Israel’s military and intelligence services, told The Associated Press, “Netanyahu wants to attack Iran, that's not even a question.” Citrinowicz said an attack was almost guaranteed if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won clearly, and said the region was headed toward “another kinetic escalation.”

TIME reported that Netanyahu would stay in office until a new government formed even if his bloc lost, and that his government would keep the authority to order strikes during the transition. Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, wrote that a strike ordered during a deadlocked campaign would be judged “as politics as well as strategy.” Analysts told The Times that Netanyahu could use the prospect of joint strikes to form a unity government and stay in power. As Roman put it, “The larger constraint is Washington.” Ballot dates don’t take military power away from officials between elections.

The United States has sent more military assets, including a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops, to join what officials described as the largest force of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades. Mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to formal talks. The United States and Iran haven’t exchanged major blows in recent weeks, although Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have continued.

The Price of Keeping Oil Moving

Lloyd’s List Intelligence said tankers kept carrying oil through the strait under U.S. military protection. The “dark shuttle,” overseen by U.S. Central Command, kept Gulf oil shipments near prewar levels, but demanded more time, money, and risk from sailors. Spot charter rates climbed to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. Lloyd’s said “active Gulf operators show little sign of retreating” despite 28 attacks on ships in October, the highest number since the war began.

The British military monitor United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said October saw the most reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, when the war began. UKMTO didn’t report the latest alleged attacks and said some shippers were becoming less willing to report incidents. Experts said oil producers had found ways to keep crude flowing, but at mounting cost. For crews making the journey, that cost isn’t an abstraction. It’s a risk built into the route by governments enforcing blockades, guiding ships, and preparing more strikes.