Iran Warns Gulf Attack Could Shock Energy Markets

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Wednesday that another Israeli-instigated attack in the Gulf could hit international markets, especially gas suppliers and consumers. In a post on X, he called the potential fallout a “devastating impact,” citing discussions at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow. Energy suppliers and consumers far beyond the governments making threats would face the consequences of military decisions.

Threats, Ballots and Military Power

The warning came as officials counted votes in Israel’s Tuesday election. The results left no clear winner between the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu was seeking to form a coalition government and vowed to topple Iran’s government, calling Iran an “existential threat.” Eisenkot, a former military chief, warned Israel’s security leadership not to serve Netanyahu’s political needs. “Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs.” His rebuke placed the use of military power in an election campaign plainly on the record; the ballot count hadn’t settled who would govern.

The United States and Israel had raised the prospect of renewed attacks on Iran in recent days. Netanyahu denied a report by Israel’s Channel 12 that he and Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir had clashed over an order for unspecified military action that defense officials feared could renew fighting with Iran. The disputed report centered on an order, a military chief and the risk of renewed conflict. People outside those rooms get no vote on whether the machinery starts again.

According to the base report, the conflict began in February 2026 with strikes on Iran. Arab News reported that the two countries had fought directly for the first time in their history, and that Tuesday’s election gave Israelis a chance to judge Netanyahu’s right-wing government amid mounting U.S. and Israeli threats of renewed attacks. Voters faced a choice between political camps, while the threat of force remained part of the public record.

Blockades and the Energy Bill

Since the conflict erupted, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy shipments from Gulf countries. Around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to travel through the strait. Iran has restricted passage and regularly attacked vessels attempting to cross without its authorization. The United States has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports in retaliation, seeking to squeeze Iran’s economy. Two governments are using control of passage and commerce as tools in their confrontation. Energy markets carry the shock outward.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Washington had told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a possible “short, intense military campaign” against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The newspaper, citing people briefed on the conversations, said President Donald Trump hadn’t made a final decision. Al-Monitor reported that Trump had also said the United States wouldn’t attack Iran until after the elections. Officials discussed possible military action in relation to the election calendar, but the prospect itself remained unresolved.

Diplomacy Without a Settled Truce

Iran has said Israel’s election outcome “makes no difference” to Tehran’s position. On Sunday, Araghchi said renewed war with the United States and Israel wouldn’t change Iran’s position. “They have already done so twice and have seen the results. If they want to try again, they know they will achieve no different outcome from those of the past.” Iran’s military warned it would retaliate more widely against any new attack. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Iran could strike U.S.-related infrastructure, including data centers and other artificial intelligence targets. Tehran called Netanyahu’s threats to topple the Iranian government “empty” and “a sign of desperation.”

Reports give different accounts of the conflict’s chronology. i24NEWS said Israel struck Iran in June 2025, followed by a joint Israeli-American offensive launched in late February 2026. It reported a ceasefire in April after 40 days of bombardment and a memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran in June. The truce eroded over the summer, leaving diplomatic negotiations at a standstill. i24NEWS said previous confrontations disrupted global markets and drove up oil and gas prices.

Oman Observer reported that Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft deal on Sunday, October 25, for the conflict. An official briefed on the negotiations, who was not Iranian, said Tehran was considering the draft and was expected to respond by the end of the week. Qatar, alongside Pakistan, had led mediation. A senior Iranian official involved in the talks called the ideas “unacceptable” and “not an offer,” and said Tehran’s policy of showing no flexibility on the nuclear issue remained unchanged. Mediation has produced a draft, not an agreement. The threat to energy supplies and the warnings of renewed attacks remain.