Iran, US and Russia Jockey for Control of Hormuz

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of driving insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, October 19, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran for talks. Washington has kept a naval counter-blockade on Iranian ports, while Tehran regularly targets vessels crossing the waterway without its authorization. In normal times, one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbons pass through the strategic strait.

The cease-fire followed in April, and the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June. Yet hostilities in and around Hormuz continued. The agreements didn’t end the competing military controls over ports, ships and passage through the strait.

Diplomacy, with the blockade still in place

At a joint press conference, Araghchi said: “The war imposed by the United States and the Zionist regime (Israel), combined with the economic blockade, constitutes the principal source of insecurity in our region.” He had previously referred to “the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”

Lavrov arrived from Bahrain on Monday, making his first visit to Iran since the Middle East war began. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the visit would focus on “regional and international developments.” The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov was scheduled to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and hold talks with Araghchi.

Moscow says it wants to prevent the conflict from widening. Lavrov said Russian efforts were “aimed at preventing the return of a large-scale war,” while talks between Tehran and Washington remained stalled. In early October, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pezeshkian that Moscow was prepared to contribute to mediation. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the discussions would address “the unlawful aggression of the US and Israel against Iran,” and the damage to stability and security “not only in the near and Middle East, but also on a global scale.”

Russia and Iran rank among the world’s most heavily sanctioned nations, and their military and economic cooperation has increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Their meeting comes as a contest continues over control of the region’s armed forces, sea lanes and negotiating terms.

Threats travel alongside talks

Iranian military officials warned Monday that any renewed U.S. attack would draw a stronger response. Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi said: “The US entered the war with all its might, and it is certainly not in a position now to start a new conflict that would bring it any new gains.” He said most U.S. bases in the region were inactive and American forces had moved hundreds of kilometers away from Iran.

Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Mostafa Izadi said U.S. naval forces had moved approximately 700 kilometers away to avoid Iranian missiles, the Guards-affiliated Fars news agency reported. Senior Guards adviser Mohammadreza Naghdi said Iran’s missile facilities had survived heavy bombardment and its strategic stockpiles remained intact. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy also said an oil tanker struck a naval mine south of Hormuz on Sunday, setting off an explosion and fire in its engine room. The Guards warned that vessels switching off navigation systems while transiting the waterway would be considered “hostile vessels.”

UK Maritime Trade Operations said two unknown projectiles struck a southbound tug northeast of Khor Fakkan in the UAE, damaging the vessel and causing one minor casualty. The tug continued on its route. The diplomacy unfolds under these conditions: military warnings, contested navigation and damaged ships.

The costs beyond the negotiating table

Araghchi warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against another war. “Last time you wanted to ‘finish the job’, Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too,” he wrote on X on Sunday. He accused Netanyahu of pushing Washington toward war to avoid legal consequences, regardless of the costs to Israel and the United States.

Economic uncertainty shapes daily decisions, too. Mohammadmehdi Shahriari, a member of parliament’s national security committee, said: “When conditions are unstable, no one can make decisions about their life and future; they cannot make a deal, invest or take action.” He said officials had raised proposals for negotiations with Washington and should be allowed to formulate a response.

Iran Air chief executive Taher Abdolhay said the national airline had only six operational aircraft despite employing more than 9,000 people, down from a fleet of 40. He cited operational restrictions and air-traffic difficulties, and said the airline had faced obstacles to flights intended to bring medicine into Iran. Governments and military officials argue over sovereignty and security. Movement, commerce and medical flights also face limits for people who don’t set the terms.