Israel Election Deadlock Leaves Rule to Coalition Bargains

Exit polls from Israel’s Oct. 27 election offered no clear path to the 61 seats needed for a government, leaving party leaders and the president to decide what comes next. The projections weren’t even settled: several broadcasters put the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot ahead, while Channel 14 placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc one seat short of a majority. Official counting continued.

The arithmetic of power

The New Arab reported projections giving Eisenkot’s bloc 52 or 53 seats and Netanyahu’s 50. Israeli television Channels 11, 12 and 13 also put the opposition at 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at about 50, with Likud the biggest single party, on 24 or 25 seats. The New Arab projected that Arab lists would win 17 or 18 seats combined.

i24NEWS offered a different map: Likud at 27 seats, Yashar at 20, B’Yachad at 15 and the Joint List at nine. Its analysts put Netanyahu’s coalition bloc at 55 and the opposition at 49, with Arab parties on 16. Channel 14 projected Netanyahu’s bloc at 60. These were exit-poll projections, not results; the Central Elections Committee was counting ballots and said actual tallies often differ.

The 120-member Knesset needs 61 seats for a majority. President Isaac Herzog is to designate the candidate with the best chance of forming a government, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. That candidate would, in principle, have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If no bloc reaches 61, a candidate could try to govern as a minority administration, depending on lawmakers’ support case by case.

Political commentator Tal Elovitz said, “Bottom line, at the moment it appears there is a possibility of forming a minority government headed by Eisenkot, but this could still shift depending on the final results.” The uncertainty leaves the parties bargaining over who gets to administer the same parliamentary apparatus.

Arab votes, conditional partnership

Arab citizens’ votes count toward the same parliamentary majority as Jewish citizens’ votes. The Arab community makes up 20 percent of Israel’s population and generally identifies as Palestinian, according to The New Arab. Yet Eisenkot said he saw no Arab party meeting his conditions for partnership: acceptance of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, the values of the Declaration of Independence, an obligation of service, and recognition that Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be dismantled. He later ruled out aligning with any Arab party in an October podcast reported by Reuters.

Ra’am said it was open to working with Eisenkot’s bloc, though the bloc had kept Arab parties at arm’s length during the campaign. The Joint List—comprising Hadash, Ta’al and Balad—said it was unlikely to join a coalition outright, but offered a “safety net” to a government that replaced Netanyahu. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen called for a funded and monitored plan to combat crime and set red lines on national issues, including war and settlement budgets.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said the arithmetic should come before negotiations over terms. Ra’am wants to participate in government; the Joint List offered to negotiate support from outside one. The parties aren’t interchangeable. Their possible support is nevertheless being weighed as coalition currency, while Eisenkot’s conditions narrow the routes to a majority.

The ballot and the bargains

The Central Elections Committee rejected Likud and allied parties’ request to extend voting past 10 p.m. It said “there is no justification for extending the voting hours,” citing high turnout. The committee extended voting in the West Bank settlement of Hebron from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. because of a power outage. Turnout reached 74.3 percent by 8 p.m., already above the total turnout in 2022. Acting director general Dean Livne said, “There hasn’t been such a nationwide voter turnout since 1973.”

Netanyahu accused Arab politicians of trying to steal the election and said three senior Ra’am officials had been arrested with envelopes of cash. Police confirmed three arrests on suspicion of trying to buy votes for Ra’am; detectives seized more than NIS 24,000, about $7,900, including prepared envelopes and notes. Livne said the case was localized and suspects had been caught near their homes, not at polling stations. Abbas called Netanyahu’s accusation a lie and said it was being used to mobilize right-wing voters.

Adalah said Arab voters reported obstacles at polling stations, including questions it called irrelevant and stations shutting their doors and halting voting. The committee said there were “no indications of systematic tampering with ballot slips” and that officials were addressing reports. The competing claims remain part of a count whose official result had not yet been announced.

A unity government bringing Netanyahu and Eisenkot together was also under discussion, despite the opposition’s campaign to oust Netanyahu and portray him as unfit to lead. A poll published on Oct. 16 found 55 percent of Israelis would prefer unity to another election if the vote produced no clear majority. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz’s 2020 power-sharing agreement broke down after a year and led to another election. The exit polls changed the bargaining positions; they haven’t settled who will govern or answered questions about security failures and political accountability raised during the campaign.