Israel's Coalition Bargain Puts Government Power Up for Grabs

Likud was projected to win about 26 seats in Israel’s 120-seat Knesset, but that first-place finish didn’t give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a clear path to forming a government. The decisive bargaining comes after voters cast ballots: parties negotiate over the premiership, ministries and policy, while a small bloc can hold the balance of power.

First place isn’t the prize

The October 27 election left Netanyahu’s traditional right-wing and religious allies projected to hold 53 seats, eight short of a majority. The four-party opposition bloc was projected to win 48 seats, while two Arab-led lists were expected to hold 19 combined. On paper, the opposition and Arab parties had enough seats to replace Netanyahu. But some opposition leaders had firmly rejected governing with Arab parties or relying on their parliamentary support.

That leaves the government question where coalition politics puts it: in negotiations among party leaders, not in a direct public vote for prime minister. The prime minister must lead a government with sufficient Knesset backing to take office and remain there. Usually that means assembling at least 61 of the 120 seats, though minority governments can sometimes survive with support from parties outside the coalition.

Israelis vote for party lists rather than individual parliamentary candidates. Lists receive seats roughly in proportion to their share of the national vote if they clear the 3.25 percent threshold. Thirty-eight lists were approved for the 2026 election, one withdrew before voting, and preliminary results indicated that 11 would enter the Knesset. The result gives voters a wider range of party choices, but it also places government formation in the hands of negotiations among parties with different interests and demands.

A small bloc, a large lever

A party with six seats could determine whether a prospective government reaches a majority and demand concessions to join. Those demands could concern religious education, military conscription, housing, economic policy, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Cabinet appointments. Coalition partners also negotiate which ministries they’ll control; a small party could seek the Education or Finance Ministry, while another could demand the Foreign Ministry despite differing foreign-policy views.

The system makes the contest over government leadership and ministries explicit. A right-wing prime minister could serve alongside a center-left foreign minister or a left-wing health minister. Coalition agreements set out broad compromises, but they don’t prevent disputes on key issues. The 2026 projections show the limits of a simple tally: parties may have enough seats on paper to replace an incumbent, yet their leaders’ refusals to work together can block that route.

The precedent of 2021

In the 2021 election, Netanyahu’s Likud won 30 seats, more than any other party, while Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid came second with 17. Neither initially became prime minister. Naftali Bennett, whose right-wing Yamina party won seven seats, took the post after reaching an agreement with Lapid that united eight parties across much of Israel’s political spectrum.

The coalition included right-wing parties, centrists, the left-wing Labor and Meretz parties, and Ra’am, an Islamist Arab party. Its common aim was to replace Netanyahu. Bennett became prime minister, Lapid became foreign minister and alternate prime minister, and they were due eventually to exchange positions. Nitzan Horowitz, Meretz’s leader, became health minister. Ra’am received no Cabinet posts but negotiated policy commitments and funding for Arab communities in exchange for joining the coalition.

That government lasted about a year before internal disagreements brought it down. Netanyahu returned to power after another election in November 2022. Now, with no clear route to a government for Netanyahu, his allies or his opponents, the same arithmetic is back: party leaders will bargain over who governs, and a party’s place in the vote count won’t settle the question.