Latino Voter Shift Puts Midterm Seats in Play

The 36 million Latino voters in the United States could shape competitive races in states such as Texas and Florida, as polls show growing support for Democratic control of Congress ahead of the November 3 midterms. Their movement matters in districts and states where Republicans had counted on gains after Latino voters swung toward Donald Trump in 2024.

Prices, healthcare and immigration

A poll NBC News/Telemundo released this month found Latino voters favored Democratic control of Congress by 24 points, 59% to 35%. In that same poll, 27% approved of Trump's overall job performance, while 20% approved of how he handled the cost of living. Exit polls in 2024 found Trump won 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris.

Mayumi Castro Fernandez, an aircraft worker and Cuban American who identifies as politically independent, voted for Trump in 2024. On Friday, she canvassed a Miami neighborhood for the Democrat challenging an incumbent House Republican, alongside her union, which backs the Democrat. “All the prices go up — the gas, the food, the health insurance,” she said. “We need a change. I change my mind. They can change it too.”

Latino voters interviewed for the report cited gas and food prices, GOP healthcare funding cuts and Trump's aggressive mass deportation efforts as reasons they were dissatisfied with his administration. In McAllen, Texas, restaurant owner Irma González said immigration policy was hurting local economic activity. “Immigration policy is very tough right now. That is precisely why the economy is so weak, with the raids and all that,” she said. “Many people simply don't want to go out.”

Competitive races across several states

The possible shift shows up in polling and contests stretching from California's Central Valley to House races in Arizona and Colorado and a Senate contest in Georgia, where the Latino population is rapidly growing. In Texas, Democrats are targeting several traditionally Republican states as they seek a net gain of four seats to claim a Senate majority.

Latino support could also sway House seats Republicans redrew in a mid-decade redistricting battle last year. Republicans drew the districts, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, based on Trump's strong 2024 performance. A change in South Texas Latino voting could affect Republican efforts to oust 28th District Rep. Henry Cuellar and 34th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Democrat Bobby Pulido could also challenge Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District.

Florida's Latino electorate includes traditionally conservative Cubans in and around Miami, Puerto Ricans in Central Florida who swung toward Trump in 2024, and Venezuelans around Miami and Orlando. Some Venezuelan voters are angry that Trump ended temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals last year. The state has looked competitive in the governor's race and several House contests, though it wasn't part of the Democrats' path to a Senate majority.

Voters weigh candidates and policy

Karina Castillo, a Venezuelan American attorney in Doral, said she voted for Trump in 2024 partly because she expected him to bring more order to immigration. She now regrets that vote and said his policy had gone too far. Castillo said the administration jailed or deported “a lot of people” who were “doing things right,” including waiting for the legal immigration process. She also raised concerns about Trump's attempts to revoke birthright citizenship and his support for Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez.

In Florida's 27th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Salazar won the overwhelmingly Latino district by nearly 21 percentage points in 2024. In an advertisement last month, she told Trump that “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far” and said Hispanics who helped elect him “feel betrayed today.” Rodriguez said her voting record didn't match the advertisement, pointing to her vote to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and past remarks defending conditions at the now-closed Florida detention facility Alligator Alcatraz.

Republican strategist Mike Madrid called the movement away from either party “dealignment,” saying many Latino voters have no party loyalty and vote against what they see as “failed government.” Democratic strategist Tory Gavito said her group's research found voters had believed Trump's pledge to “shake things up,” but now “they don't see prices getting lowered, they don't see an increase in jobs, and many mixed-status families are living in fear.” Voters will test the effect of any shift in races on November 3.