Mecca Pact: Regional Powers Bargain Over War

On October 26, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sent senior officials to Tehran as Yemen’s Houthis launched new attacks on Saudi Arabia and Egypt approved defense support for the kingdom. Their talks brought rival governments to the table, while a military pact among three of them says an attack on one member counts as an attack on all three.

Security by military pact

Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, joined them. The four countries agreed to continue discussions on regional peace and security.

This marked the first high-level contact between Iran and all three visiting countries since the war began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed in August. Earlier in October, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey agreed to carry out their defense commitments and rapidly deploy military personnel and capabilities to Saudi Arabia. Pakistan ratified the pact; Turkey’s parliament hadn’t yet approved it.

The agenda left little room for the people living under the decisions being negotiated. Iranian officials said the talks concerned regional security, not Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran said the nuclear issue wouldn’t be discussed until its conditions for ending the war were met, including lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and removing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iranian reports said the discussions also covered assistance to people in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon.

Mediation, with leverage in question

Saudi Arabia said it intercepted another wave of missiles and drones on Sunday. Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Public Diplomacy Raed bin Khalid Qarmali said the visit aimed to reduce hostilities and support mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan. The talks were expected to address Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia; Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognized government, while the Houthis are allied with Tehran.

Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group, called the visit “an attempt to tip the balance in favour of those willing to compromise before the guns start blazing again.” But, he said, “unless they arrive with a credible formula to bridge the US-Iran divide, they may find themselves with little more than goodwill in a race against the clock.”

Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior research fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, said the pact’s parties lacked military options against the Houthis, while Riyadh was applying greater pressure and expecting more from partners. Turkey and Pakistan couldn’t “afford to commit troops on the ground” in Yemen, she said. Umer Karim, who researches Saudi foreign policy and its implications for regional security, said the meetings were unlikely to reduce the risk of renewed war between Iran and the United States. He said the talks were “more concerned about the security of Saudi Arabia” and involved an attempt by Turkey and Pakistan “to compel Iran to reach a compromise.”

The blockade and the next threat

Iranian authorities said they favored “security originating from within the region.” Iran says the U.S. naval blockade of its southern ports has halted crude oil exports and disrupted most trade. It has sought to revive a memorandum of understanding agreed by Iran and the United States in June; the United States rejected that proposal.

Washington wants international shipping and transit through the Strait of Hormuz to resume without impediments or attacks. It also wants to limit Iran’s nuclear program and allow international inspectors to assess its highly enriched uranium. Israel says it wants to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Reports said U.S. President Donald Trump was considering new attacks, and he said he faced a choice to “finish the job” with major strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Iran could target neighboring countries in response, as it did earlier in the war with strikes on U.S. bases in Arab states and infrastructure.

On October 21, the U.S. Department of State ordered nonemergency U.S. government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia because of the Houthi threat. Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners argued over whether diplomacy would preserve or surrender leverage. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of Kayhan daily, questioned the visitors’ credibility because of their ties to Washington and accused them of supporting U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. Ali Bagheri Kani presented the meeting as a chance to develop a new regional security framework. The governments keep negotiating over security. More strikes remain a threat.