Big Money and Party Machines Court Independent Voters

Republicans spent more than Democrats on campaign advertising as both parties raced to turn out supporters and court independent voters on the final day of the 2026 midterm campaign. MAGA Inc., Trump's super PAC, spent hundreds of millions of dollars backing candidates, while America PAC, backed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, spent heavily for Republicans up and down the ballot. Voters cast ballots Tuesday. Wealthy funders and party organizations had already spent heavily to shape their choices.

The Money Behind the Ballot

Seven House seats were rated toss-ups, and control of the Senate was in play. Election forecasters at Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 82 percent chance of flipping the House and a 62 percent chance of winning the Senate. Emerson College polling in the week before Election Day showed Democrats leading by 10 points on the generic congressional ballot, The Hill reported.

The outcome remained uncertain. The eventual size of any "blue wave," and whether Democrats could control both chambers, remained open questions. Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said, "The Republicans seem to be getting out their base. The Democrats are supercharged, they're getting out their group." He added, "Now we're going to see what those independents do, if they make the difference in these races."

Trump urged supporters to "pretend" he was on the ballot and traveled around the country in recent weeks to rally for preferred candidates. Many stops came in Republican-leaning states, including Alabama, Alaska, Mississippi and Kansas. The Hill reported that Republicans worried Trump's low approval ratings and high fuel and fertilizer prices could weaken support among independent or unaffiliated voters who backed him in the previous election.

The contest also gave voters a chance to respond to executive power through the same institutions that structure the campaign. "This is an opportunity for the American people to try to put some brakes on the government," said Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University. Christopher Warshaw, a Georgetown University public policy professor, said, "The reason we have a democracy is in part because the out party does well in midterm elections. That function of midterms is really important regardless of who's in power."

Who Pays for the Political Fight

Affordability and economic concerns, including prices and housing, shaped the campaign alongside immigration policy, tariffs, artificial intelligence and the war in Iran. Analysts said those issues and fatigue with Trump created headwinds for Republicans and could move voters toward the party out of power. In midterm elections, the party out of power typically gains control of the House.

Money could matter in close races, Kimball said, though he questioned how much late spending would change results. "While the money's important and it might make a difference in some of these very close races, at this point it seems like the momentum is with the Democrats," he said. Democratic candidates in battleground Senate races consistently reported higher fundraising totals than their Republican opponents.

Latino voters, who moved sharply toward Republicans in 2024, appeared to be shifting back toward Democrats. A 2025 Pew Research Center analysis said former President Biden won the group by 25 percentage points in 2020; in 2024, Latino voters shifted 22 points toward Republicans, and Trump lost them by 3 points. A NBC News/Telemundo survey released in early October put Trump's approval rating among Latino voters at 27 percent. A separate Pew Research Center survey released in October put it at 24 percent.

Turnout Outside the Campaign Offices

Grassroots organizers and nonpartisan groups also worked to bring people to the polls. Brandon Waithe, 42, an Air Force veteran who organized get-out-the-vote events through Project HALO, held a line-dancing event in a Cleveland public plaza last month. He said he wanted to increase turnout and "tie some positive emotion to the act of voting." His message was direct: "There's no pressure. ... We're not telling you which party to vote for or which candidate. We're just like, 'Thank you for participating in voting.'"

Nonpartisan groups held last-minute events to encourage people to vote. A hotline run by a nonprofit coalition organized by the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law received hundreds of calls a day about voting; the article did not specify the coalition's funding or describe services beyond the hotline.

The count might take longer if close races in Maine or Alaska determined control of the Senate. Thaddeus Kousser, a UC San Diego political science professor, said the result would probably take some days to verify in that scenario. "What I've been telling people is you're going to have to buckle up and wait," he said. The election offers a ballot-box check on those holding office, while campaign spending, party machinery and the uncertain count set the terms of that check.