Arab Votes, Coalition Math, and Israel’s Race for Power

With more than 90% of the vote counted Wednesday evening, neither main bloc had the 61 Knesset seats needed to form a governing majority: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc had 53, while Gadi Eisenkot's camp had 48. The Joint List and Ra'am, Israel's two Arab parties, nearly doubled their representation to 19 seats. Their votes could help either bloc form a coalition, but neither has publicly said it will include Arab-led parties.

The election's arithmetic has put a basic question of representation inside the contest for government: will parties seeking power accept support from representatives of approximately 20% of Israel's population? Much of the Jewish Israeli electorate opposes such a partnership after the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. Multiple members of Eisenkot's bloc have pledged not to sit with an Arab party.

Votes, Seats, and the Coalition Gate

Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of the liberal Zionist lobby J Street, praised turnout estimated at nearly 78% of eligible voters and “the historic participation of Arab citizens of Israel.” He said their votes are “a vital part of Israel's democratic fabric,” then called on Jewish opposition parties to reach out to Arab parties and form an alternative government.

“Israel cannot build a stronger, more inclusive democracy while treating the political representatives of one-fifth of its population as illegitimate governing partners,” Ben-Ami said. The numbers make the question concrete: the Arab parties' 19 seats could provide either bloc with enough support, while the opposition's campaign promises set limits on which partners its members say they will accept.

Ra'am has previously served in a coalition and has said it is willing to do so again. The Joint List rejects the definition of Israel as a Jewish state and therefore refuses to serve in a Zionist-led government. Jacob Stoil, a research professor of Middle East Security Studies at the US Army War College, said there are “some real challenges” to forming a coalition with the Arab parties, citing their political positions and Eisenkot's partners' campaign promises.

A Government Kept in Office

Stoil described one possible arrangement: “a minority government with the Arab parties essentially voting to keep the government in office and protecting it.” He warned that such a government could face “a lot of challenges in passing legislation.” His comments, he said, didn't reflect the views of the US Army or the US government.

Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration, called the results an “important opportunity for change” if Eisenkot's bloc worked with Arab parties. He said that “in almost no scenario” would far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich retain their current influence, and called preventing that outcome an incentive to avoid new elections.

The remaining count still mattered to the coalition calculations. Ballots cast by soldiers, prisoners and diplomats stationed abroad had not yet been counted by Israel's Central Elections Committee; those votes were expected to add another 430,000-480,000 to the count. Stoil said a realistic pathway to partnership could only be determined once the full results were tallied.

Calls for Inclusion, Calls to the Street

Gabriel Epstein, a senior policy associate at the Israel Policy Forum, urged Eisenkot and his partners not to shy away from joining with Ra'am and the Joint List. “Greater integration of the Arab community into Israeli society is also key for political and democratic legitimacy,” he wrote on X.

Israelis for Peace NYC, which describes itself as a group of “anti-occupation activists,” praised Palestinian citizens of Israel for voting in unprecedented numbers. The group said their votes delivered “a victory to the anti-Netanyahu bloc” by dislodging the ruling coalition, then criticized the change bloc for “refusing to accept this gift, out of no other reason but deep-rooted, unexamined and systemic racism.”

Calling the choice “a shared future or no future at all,” the group said the Arab population was “being completely and shamelessly disregarded.” It urged the liberal majority in Israel to hold mass demonstrations and pressure Eisenkot and other opposition leaders to sit with the Arab parties. Meanwhile, the Jewish Federations of North America issued a neutral statement praising democratic principles and civic participation, and said it would keep working with leaders across the political spectrum. AIPAC praised the election as a demonstration of commitment to democracy and free and fair elections. The vote has counted its representatives. The coalition decision remains with the parties seeking office.