Tariffs and Iran War Put GOP's Cost-of-Living Strain in Focus

Mark Brooks’ Maine lobster-trap business lost roughly $2 million in annual shipments to Canada virtually overnight after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney imposed 50% tariffs on U.S. lobster traps in September. The dispute is one challenge facing Republican candidates as Nov. 3 congressional elections near. Rising prices, the war with Iran and voters’ economic concerns add to the pressure.

Maine sends more than 40% of its exports to Canada and depends more than any other state on home heating oil. Brooks, a third-generation manufacturer who runs Brooks Trap Mill with his siblings, said a domestic supplier raised wire mesh prices by 20% the same week President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel. Brooks Trap Mill operates seven locations across Maine.

Costs and the Maine race

Higher diesel prices as the U.S. war with Iran escalated brought freight surcharges and slower sales, Brooks said. “It’s basically the worst business climate for us that I’ve ever seen in 40 years,” he said. “We’ve eaten as much cost as we can to try to keep our prices down, but we just can’t eat any more than we have already.”

The strain is showing up in a close Senate contest between Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate. More than 90% of likely Maine voters rated the state’s economy “fair” or “poor” in a Suffolk University poll this month, and a majority said the state was on the wrong track. Fifty-seven percent gave Trump an unfavorable rating. Polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne showed Jackson ahead by an average of 2 percentage points.

Seven in 10 likely Maine voters said tariffs on Canadian goods were bad for the state, while 12% called them “a good thing,” according to a CNN poll last month. Collins and Jackson both criticized the tariffs. At an Oct. 13 debate, Collins said both candidates would have voted against them, but argued she had negotiated to remove some items from the tariff list. Jackson replied, “We shouldn’t be in a trade war with Canada.”

Collins secured exemptions for concrete, wood pulp and road salt. Her campaign said a meeting with Canada’s ambassador in Washington helped keep lobster off Ottawa’s retaliation list. But lobstermen still face higher costs. Brooks’ traps now sell for $180, compared with $130 two years earlier, and diesel fuel for boats rose 67% statewide over the past year, according to AAA. Rope, much of it imported from India, and bait, largely from Europe, also cost more amid tariffs and higher fuel prices.

Voters weigh costs and executive power

Eight in 10 Americans rated the economy fair or poor, the highest share since December 2023, according to a CNBC All-America Economic Survey. Trump’s overall approval stood at 40%, with 59% disapproving. His economic approval was 34%, while 65% disapproved, leaving his net economic approval at minus 31 points. Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, said Republican pessimism had climbed to its highest recorded level in either of Trump’s two terms.

Respondents preferred Democratic control of Congress 52% to 45%. Independents favored Democratic control 49% to 33%, and a majority said Democrats would do a better job on issues including corruption and the cost of food and gas. Republicans kept an advantage on border security and immigration, though their lead on immigration fell to 9 points from 15.

The survey also found that 46% believed U.S. military action in Iran was worth it to disrupt Iran’s nuclear development, down from 53% in April. Thirty-five percent said the military action was worth it given rising gasoline prices. Steve Train, a Casco Bay lobsterman who hauls 400 traps a day, criticized Trump for “bypassing Congress” to “issue executive orders to do things that cause us a problem.” Train also credited Collins for helping the lobster industry and said he would split his vote between the parties.

Culture-war campaigning and Iowa

Trump has leaned on cultural issues at rallies as polls show economic concerns weighing on voters. At a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, he attacked gender-affirming surgeries and transgender athletes in women’s sports. He has also raised immigration and what he called “transgender insanity” at campaign events. Since Aug. 1, Republican candidates or pro-Republican groups had spent more than $100 million on 200 ads referencing transgender issues, according to AdImpact.

In a CNN/SSRS poll in September, 25% called transgender policies “extremely important,” compared with 68% who said the economy was extremely important. Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and strategist, said cultural issues were being “overwhelmed by economic issues of inflation, economic growth and concern about tariffs, and the effect on the war on Iran.”

Iowa farm incomes fell 53% in the last three years, and Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies more than doubled in the past two years. Decision Desk HQ figures showed Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson by less than a point, 46.7% to 46.3%; prediction markets favored Hinson. Hinson planned to join Trump at a Sioux City rally on Thursday, Oct. 22. She said she would be his ally when it mattered for Iowa and would push back on him when necessary. Turek said Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war had “hurt Iowa more than any other state,” while also saying he would work with Trump on immigration.