Voters Punish GOP on Prices as Midterms Near

Nineteen days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Republicans face a cost-of-living problem they can't easily campaign around. About 8 in 10 voters named the economy or cost of living among their top election issues in a new AP-NORC poll, and nearly 8 in 10 disapproved of President Donald Trump's handling of it.

The numbers cut deep. In some battleground races, Republicans are now trying to distance themselves from the president's tariffs, even as Trump continues campaigning for GOP candidates across the map.

The Price Problem

The AP-NORC poll, conducted Oct. 8-12 among 1,119 adults including 925 registered voters, found about three-quarters of voters disapproving of Trump's performance on the economy. Even among Republicans, only 44% approved of his work on the cost of living, while 54% approved of his economic leadership. Just 69% of Republican voters backed his foreign policy as the war in Iran stretched into its eighth month, despite his promises it would last four or five weeks.

A Fox News Poll found a similar picture. Trump's approval stood at 36%, a record low for either term, with 64% disapproving. His approval on inflation hit 22%. Some 74% rated the economy negatively, 53% expected it to worsen next year, and 55% said inflation was not at all under control. Seven in 10 voters said they'd vote in the midterms to send a message to Trump.

Frustration came from within the party's own ranks. DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, said she planned to back Republican candidates but wasn't happy with the economy. "Everything's going up," she said, citing the war with Iran and other Trump decisions. "I don't agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It's making this country look bad."

Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia, pointed to policy choices. "If prices, especially given the latest report on inflation, are one problem, then deal with the tariffs that are a cause," he said. He also cited the Iran war's effect on energy prices and the cost of goods that depend, directly or indirectly, on oil.

Democrats' Agenda and Its Price Tag

Democrats have an edge in enthusiasm. About three-quarters of Democratic voters called voting in November extremely important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans. About half of registered voters preferred Democratic control of the House or Senate, while roughly 4 in 10 preferred Republican control of each chamber and 15% were undecided. In a hypothetical House vote in the Fox poll, 54% backed the Democratic candidate and 45% the Republican.

Still, the Democratic brand isn't exactly popular. Roughly 4 in 10 voters had a favorable view of Democrats, and about half viewed the party unfavorably. Among independents, about 4 in 10 viewed Democrats negatively. Michael Russo, a Texas voter not registered with either party, said of Democrats, "I'm not confident they're going to do anything if they get into power."

The party has ambitious plans. Fox News reported that Democrats are preparing a 100-day agenda if they regain the House, including restoring expanded Affordable Care Act tax credits, reversing Republican Medicaid cuts and seeking votes to end Trump's tariffs. They're also preparing investigations into Trump, his family and his administration. Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Leader, assigned lawmakers to prepare those probes. Republicans hold a narrow House majority.

Voters did give Republicans the edge on some issues. The Fox poll found they were trusted more on border security, crime and immigration, while Democrats led on health care, gas prices, artificial intelligence and foreign policy. Immigration and crime ranked lower than the economy as voter priorities.

On the Trail

Trump campaigned in Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, focusing on gun rights, national security and the economy. In Montana, he announced the Pentagon would establish a new "super range" to test advanced weapons and military technologies. At a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, he backed Rep. Andy Biggs, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, and criticized Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. "On election night, Arizona is going to prove that America does not belong to those who hate it," Trump said. Biggs urged supporters to "Vote Republican top to bottom."

Georgia offers a different test. The state recorded 188,667 in-person ballots on the first day of early voting, about 40% more than the first day in 2022. Independent strategist Omar Ali, who has worked with Gov. Brian Kemp and former Vice President Kamala Harris, said concerns about federal policies and rising costs could be motivating voters. He said Republicans are bringing Trump to Dalton, where he rallies Friday at 1:30 p.m., to energize rural turnout. "Most Republicans think that there's no chance whatsoever that Mayor Bottoms will win," Ali said. "And because of that, they're not as motivated."

Rick Jackson, the Republican running for governor, declined an Atlanta Press Club debate invitation, leaving Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms alone on stage.

Grant Davis Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist, offered perspective. The latest Fox numbers, he said, were "just a new low by a percentage point or two," noting that "midterms are generally reactions to the president."

Why This Matters:

Pocketbook pressure is driving this election, and the polling suggests voters hold the party in power responsible. Tariffs, energy costs tied to the Iran war and persistent inflation show up at the register, and Republicans who built their case on economic stewardship now find that case contested. That raises a real policy question: whether trade measures that add to consumer prices can survive a campaign where affordability is the central issue.

There's another side. A Democratic House would bring a promised agenda of expanded health care tax credits, reversed Medicaid cuts and a long list of investigations of the administration. Voters who say they want change should weigh what that change would cost and whether the opposition has earned their confidence. Only 4 in 10 voters view Democrats favorably, and many aren't convinced they'd deliver. With control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's term at stake, the result will shape both the tariff debate and the fiscal direction of the country.