Israel's Coalition Deadlock Leaves Arab Votes in Limbo

More than five million votes had been counted by Wednesday evening, yet neither of Israel’s main blocs had the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority without Arab-party support. Official Central Elections Committee figures gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats and the opposition bloc 48, while Arab parties had won 19 combined. The arithmetic is clear. The coalition doors aren’t.

The numbers behind the deadlock

With about 88% of the count complete, double-envelope ballots remained to be counted through the night. Israelis who voted outside their designated polling stations included IDF soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners and certain election workers. Those ballots could still affect the final result.

Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to take 26 seats, making it the largest party. United Torah Judaism, Shas and Otzma Yehudit were each expected to win seven seats, and the Religious Zionist Party was projected to take six. Most television polls before the election had pointed to fewer seats for Likud and more for other parties in Netanyahu’s bloc.

The opposition bloc comprises Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar was projected to win 21 seats, Naftali Bennett’s B'Yachad 12, Yair Golan’s Democrats eight, and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu seven. Before the vote, most television polling showed the opposition ahead, with Yashar tipped to become the Knesset’s largest party.

Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party were both projected to miss the 3.25% electoral threshold, potentially complicating Netanyahu’s bloc’s effort to secure a majority. The Joint List was projected to win 12 seats, and Ra’am seven.

Arab parties: needed, then ruled out

Golan urged the opposition bloc to form a government with Arab parties. On social media, he wrote: “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120. Sixty-five is more than 55. That's how Israeli democracy works. Period.” He added: “We have no future here if we don't stop being afraid... We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes.” Golan said the opposition had won a Zionist majority and argued Netanyahu “should subtract 16 seats” belonging to the haredi parties.

Other opposition leaders, though, have drawn a red line against Arab parties joining a government. They argue Arab parties aren’t viable coalition partners after the October 7 Hamas attacks in 2023. Bennett has firmly opposed including any Arab faction in a future coalition. Liberman rejected relying on Arab parties before the election.

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party was ready to “pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government.” He had previously said he would support a minority government if it met a series of demands. MK Ahmad Tibi, the Joint List faction chairman, told Army Radio: “The opposition bloc will be able to form a government if it has the courage. We are extending a hand and are ready to help.”

Negotiations, not a settled mandate

A unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot looked unlikely. Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation government, and other opposition leaders have ruled out joining a coalition led by the prime minister. Negotiations could still produce an agreement, but the deadlock could also lead to another election.

President Isaac Herzog urged leaders to approach negotiations with open minds. He said Israel must do everything possible to avoid another election. “Therefore, I expect everyone who comes here to arrive with an open mind,” he said. By law, the president must consult Knesset factions before deciding who will be tasked with forming a government.

The Bennett-Yair Lapid government formed in 2021 marked the first time in Israel’s history that an Arab party, Ra’am, joined a government. Ra’am has sought to present itself as a viable coalition partner. In August, its chairperson, Monsour Abbas, announced former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz would take the second spot on the party’s list—the first Jewish candidate to join the Islamist-conservative party. Adding a Jewish, Zionist candidate has been widely seen as an effort to make Ra’am look like a more viable partner.

The ballots establish the seat count; party leaders will decide whose support counts in the bargaining ahead. Arab parties hold seats that could help make a government, but their place in it remains contested.