Two Navies, Two Blockades, and Burning Tankers: Who Pays?

Four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, Iran's military said, and two of them carried a combined total of more than four million barrels of oil that is now ablaze. Hours earlier, the president of the United States had announced that he doesn't need a deal to stop any of it. "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" Donald Trump wrote on social media.

The Strait is a waterway that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil. Right now it's the property of two rival armed forces. Iran has heavily restricted traffic since the war began in February, insisting vessels use routes it approves. The US answered with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and has been helping tankers cross. Competing blockades, in the words reported by Middle East Eye. The people on the tankers weren't consulted. One vessel hit northwest of Ras Al-Khaimah on Wednesday caught fire in its engine room, and its crew had to be evacuated.

The State's Monopoly

The Revolutionary Guards Navy called its victims' route "unauthorised and dangerous" and said two tankers were involved in an "accident" after ignoring repeated warnings. It blamed "the blind trust placed in the aggressive American military." Iranian state media said vessels hit naval mines. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported some of the same incidents as strikes by unknown projectiles. Reuters couldn't verify the Iranian account. Nobody with a flag has claimed responsibility for the fire. Everybody with a flag claims the right to decide who sails.

The count keeps climbing. At least 10 ships were hit in the first 10 days of November, after 37 attacks in October, the highest monthly tally since the conflict began, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Oil prices have fallen anyway, on expectations of de-escalation. The market is pricing in diplomacy while the hulls keep burning.

Who Benefits

Watch the diplomacy itself, because it's a comedy staged by men with careers. Vice President JD Vance led talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan about seven months ago, producing a June memorandum of understanding that paused the war and broke down within weeks. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Vance was seeking a face-to-face meeting with Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei, with Trump's approval. Then Trump ordered Vance to give "his complete and total attention" to alleged corruption in Democratic-run cities. Iran officially denied any talks were scheduled, though the US appeared to be pushing for a meeting behind the scenes.

Vance, viewed as a contender for the 2028 Republican nomination, distanced himself from the war after the Democratic midterm landslide on 3 November. "The reason we lost is the war," he wrote on X. The war's ninth month is being managed according to the electoral calendar of the country that started it. Trump had suggested in recent weeks that Iran would be more willing to deal after the US elections. Now the administration signals that its blockade and sanctions are working, so neither escalation nor diplomacy is needed.

Then came the whiplash. In a Thursday interview Trump said he would use force against Iran "without hesitation" and that "I might do it right now." Al Jazeera reported that he later said he'd held off on more strikes at Gulf allies' request, hours after saying he wouldn't hesitate. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran's demands, including reparations, "absurd" and said Washington was in no hurry because it believes it has the upper hand in the Strait.

Who Gets Crushed

The claims on offer are all ledgers of power. Trump says Iranian inflation has reached 301%, its economy has been destroyed, and the US has not lost a soldier in five months. The inflation figure sits in a sanctions-and-blockade strategy that, by his own account, is meant to wreck an economy. Tehran meanwhile says Washington must decide on its latest proposal after Iran rejected transferring 60% of its enriched uranium to a third country. Neither capital mentions the tanker crews.

The region's governments, for their part, mostly register discomfort. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, warned of "a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted." Middle East Eye said sidelining Vance is likely to unnerve regional allies whose economies are suffering from the lack of clarity on US policy. Bafel Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, offered a different kind of sentence: "As an ally of Mr Trump and, strangely, an ally of the Iranians, [I say] the mighty US can do it."

The mighty can do it. They've had nine months.